000 AXNT20 KNHC 120000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Aug 12 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Fred is centered near 18.9N 71.0W at 11/2100 UTC or 70 nm WNW of Santo Domingo Dominican Republic moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is mainly over Hispaniola from 17N to 20N between 68W and 73W. On the forecast track, the center of Fred is expected to be over Hispaniola for the next several hours, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, and move near or north of the northern coast of central Cuba Thursday night and Friday. Fred is expected to weaken to a depression tonight as it crosses Hispaniola. Slow re-intensification is expected beginning Thursday night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 07N to 18N with axis near 37W, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 15N between 36W and 42W. Environmental conditions are expected to become gradually conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while moving generally westward across the tropical Atlantic. This system could reach portions of the Leeward Islands by late Saturday. A tropical wave extends from 05N to 20N with axis near 52W, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are from 02N to 13N between 46W and 56W. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean just to the south of Fred with axis near 71W, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is supporting showers and thunderstorms over Venezuela and Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 14N17W to 13N32W to 07N51W. The ITCZ begins at 07N51W and continues to 06N57W. For convection information, see the tropical waves section above. ...GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough supports heavy showers and isolated tstms over the Louisiana adjacent waters while a low aloft supports similar convection over the Bay of Campeche, including the Yucatan peninsula adjacent waters. Otherwise, the SW extension of the Atlantic ridge covers the basin and continue to support gentle to moderate E to SE flow, except NE flow off the Yucatan peninsula. For the forecast, moderate to fresh E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche tonight and Thu night in association with a diurnal trough. Elsewhere, a weak surface ridge will prevail along 30N through Thu. Tropical Storm Fred is near 18.9N 71.0W 1007 mb at 5 PM EDT moving WNW at 13 kt. Fred is expected to move across the Straits of Florida as a tropical storm by Fri night, enter the SE Gulf of Mexico on Sat, and move NW along the far E Gulf through the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Tropical Storm Fred is near 18.9N 71.0W 1007 mb at 5 PM EDT moving WNW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Fred is expected to be over Hispaniola for the next several hours and move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday. Fred is expected to weaken to a depression tonight as it crosses Hispaniola. Please see the Special Features section for further details on Tropical Storm Fred. Aside from Fred and scattered showers over the SW basin being supported by the NE Pacific monsoon trough, moderate to fresh trades cover the eastern portion of the basin and gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across most of the basin through the rest of the week. Fresh winds can be expected in the Windward Passage through tonight. Fresh to locally strong winds will prevail near the coast of Colombia through Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Tropical Storm Fred is near 18.9N 71.0W 1007 mb at 5 PM EDT moving WNW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Fred is expected to be over Hispaniola for the next several hours, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, and move near or north of the northern coast of central Cuba Thursday night and Friday. Fred is expected to weaken to a depression tonight as it crosses Hispaniola. Slow re-intensification is expected beginning Thursday night. Please see Special Features section above for more on Tropical Storm Fred. Otherwise, the Bermuda-Azores high continue to be the main feature N of 20N across the basin. With this, gentle to moderate easterly winds are across the central and SW region while NE winds of similar magnitude cover the NW Africa adjacent waters. Aside from Fred, no much change is expected within the next several days. $$ Ramos