000 AXNT20 KNHC 110604 TWDAT Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Fred is centered near 17.4N 66.8W or 40 nm SSW of Ponce Puerto Rico moving WNW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb at 11/0300 UTC. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is concentrated in the SW quadrant about 100 nm from the center. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to pass near or over the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight, be near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday, and be near the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands on Thursday. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts with Hispaniola on Wednesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 04N to 21N with axis near 30W, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 14N between 25W and 35W. A tropical wave extends from 05N to 22N with axis near 44W, moving estward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted mainly in the southern end of the wave from 04N-08N between 41W-47W. A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean S of 21N with axis near 83W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 15N to 22N between 79W and 87W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 11N16W to 11N32W to 07N41W. The ITCZ continues from 07N47W to 07N59W. Aside from convection described above in the Special Features and Tropical Waves sections, scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 08N between 37W and 41W and along the ITCZ from 04N-08N between 46W to 52W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extending from the Atlantic covers the basin which is providing light to gentle return flow and seas in the 1 to 3 ft range. Water vapor and microwave imagery show there is plenty of moisture across the gulf, which along with middle to upper level divergence support scattered showers and tstms N of 23N. The diurnal trough over the Yucatan Peninsula extends From 23N87W to 18N91W with scattered showers and thunderstorms In the eastern portion of the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche each night through Wed night in association with a diurnal trough. Elsewhere, a weak surface ridge will prevail along 30N Tue through Thu. Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Fred is expected to move across the Straits of Florida Fri night as a tropical storm, into the SE Gulf of Mexico Sat, and NW along the far E Gulf through the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Fred is centered near 17.4N 66.8W or 40 nm SSW of Ponce Puerto Rico moving WNW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb at 11/0300 UTC. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Please see the Special Features section for further details on Tropical Storm Fred. Outside of the Tropical Storm and tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is noted from Cabo Cruz to Isla de la Juventud. ASCAT Data indicates Fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean And in the Windward Passage, while light to moderate trades are noted In the southeastern and western Caribbean. Seas ranged between 2 to 3 Ft across the northwest, 3 to 6 ft south of the Tropical Storm Fred, and up to 8 ft in the south central Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean will diminish early Wed. Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Fred near 17.4N 66.8W 1009 mb at 11 PM EDT moving W at 15 kt. Fred will reach E Hispaniola Wed morning, move north of Hispaniola Wed night, and then move north of Cuba Thu and Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure prevails across the tropical Atlantic. Moderate to locally fresh trades remain from 15N to 25N, with light to gentle trades elsewhere in the discussion waters. Seas are in the 3-5 ft north of 22N and west of 70W, and 5-7 ft elsewhere including over open waters. For the forecast W of 65W, Atlc surface ridge associated with the Bermuda-Azores high will persist with axis N of the area for the next several days. Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Fred near 17.4N 66.8W 1009 mb at 11 PM EDT moving W at 15 kt. Fred will reach E Hispaniola Wed morning, move north of Hispaniola Wed night, and continue west northwestward to the north of Cuba Thu and Fri. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts with Hispaniola on Wednesday. $$ Torres