000 AXNT20 KNHC 102353 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Aug 11 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is centered near 16.9N 65.5W at 10/2100 UTC or 90 nm SE of Ponce Puerto Rico moving WNW at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 14N to 23N between 61W and 69W. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to pass near or over the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight, be near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday, and be near the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands on Thursday. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts with Hispaniola on Wednesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 06N to 17N with axis near 28W, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 14N between 25W and 35W. A tropical wave extends from 15N to 20N with axis near 43W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time. A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean S of 21N with axis near 80W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 15N to 22N between 79W and 87W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 12N16W to 10N31W to 08N40W. The ITCZ continues from 08N44W to 08N57W. Aside from convection described above in the Special Features and Tropical Waves sections, scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 10N between 35W and 58W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extending from the Atlantic covers the basin which is providing light to gentle return flow and seas in the 1 to 3 ft. Water vapor and microwave imagery show there is plenty of moisture across the gulf, which along with middle to upper level divergence support scattered showers and tstms N of 22N. Moderate to fresh E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche each night through Wed night in association with a diurnal trough. Elsewhere, a weak surface ridge will prevail along 30N Tue through Thu. Potential Tropical Cyclone Six near 16.9N 65.5W 1012 mb at 5 PM EDT moving WNW at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Six is expected to move across the Straits of Florida by Fri night as a tropical storm, and move into the SE Gulf of Mexico by Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Potential Tropical Cyclone Six near 16.9N 65.5W 1012 mb at 5 PM EDT moving WNW at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Six will move to 17.8N 67.8W Wed morning, inland to 19.0N 70.4W Wed afternoon, 20.2N 72.8W Thu morning, 21.2N 75.0W Thu afternoon, 22.1N 77.2W Fri morning, and 23.1N 79.1W Fri afternoon. Six will change little in intensity as it moves near 25.5N 82.5W Sat afternoon. Please see the Special Features section for further details on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six. Outside of Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, fresh to locally strong trades prevail over the central Caribbean with mainly moderate trades elsewhere. Seas are 6-8 ft near the Leeward Islands in the NE Caribbean, 2-4 ft near the Windward Islands in the SE Caribbean, 5-7 ft in the central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft in the W Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean are expected to diminish by tonight. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure prevails across the tropical Atalntic. Moderate to locally fresh trades remain from 15N to 25N, with light to gentle trades elsewhere in the discussion waters. Seas are in the 3-5 ft north of 22N and west of 70W, and 5-7 ft elsewhere including over open waters. For the forecast W of 65W, Atlc surface ridge associated with the Bermuda-Azores high will persist with axis N of the area for the next several days. Potential Tropical Cyclone Six near 16.9N 65.5W 1012 mb at 5 PM EDT moving WNW at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Six is expected to pass near or over the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight, be near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday, and be near the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands on Thursday. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts with Hispaniola on Wednesday. Please see the Special Features section for further information on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six $$ Ramos