000 AXNT20 KNHC 091000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Aug 9 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Low pressure of 1010 mb is centered near 13N56W. Satellite imagery shows disorganized scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 12N to 15N between 55W and 58W. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some development over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form while the low moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph. The disturbance is forecast to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles by late tonight, then move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and be near Hispaniola around the middle of this week. Regardless of development, heavy rains and flooding are likely for the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system. This system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to latest Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for the latest information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 32W from 21N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted within 60 nm of the wave axis from 18N to 21N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 53W south of 20N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 51W to 54W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 70W south of 21N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is over Hispaniola. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Mauritania near 20N16W to 12N31W to low pres near 15N47W to 14N53W. Aside from convection described above in the Special Features and Tropical Waves sections, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 09N to 17N and E of 21W to the coast of Africa ahead of the next tropical wave about to move off the coast of western Africa. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is also noted from 06N to 17N between 46W and 51W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure dominates the Gulf waters, anchored by a 1019 mb high centered over the NE Gulf. A surface trough is just west of the Yucatan peninsula. Light winds are noted over the NE Gulf in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds are over the NW Gulf, and moderate to fresh winds are over the southern Gulf. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range over the SW Gulf as well as the far NW Gulf. Elsewhere, seas are in the 1-3 ft range. For the forecast, moderate to fresh E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche each night through Tue night in association with a diurnal trough. Elsewhere, a weak surface ridge along 27N will dominate the Gulf waters today, and drift northward to along 29N-30N Tue through Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure prevails north of the area. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the south central Caribbean. Seas are 1-3 ft over the NW Caribbean, except over the Gulf of Honduras where seas are in the 3-5 ft range. Elsewhere, seas are in the 4-6 ft range. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will pulse over the south- central Caribbean tonight and Tue night. Otherwise moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across all but NW portions this evening through early Wed. A strong tropical wave with very active weather is expected to move across the tropical Atlantic waters Mon and Mon night, across the NE Caribbean and adjacent Atlantic waters Tue and Tue night, and reach the central Caribbean midweek. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure prevails across the subtropical waters north of 20N, anchored by 1029 mb high pressure centered near 37N35W. Light to gentle winds prevail over the waters N of 25N and west of 60W, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere N of 20N. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range N of 26N and W of 60W as well as west of the Bahamas. Elsewhere N of 20N, seas are in the 4-7 ft range. In the deep tropical, two low pressure areas are being monitored for potential tropical cyclone development. One low near 13N56W has a medium probability for development within the next 48 hours and is discussed further in the Special Features section above. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 7-9 ft are noted within 180 NM north of the low. The other low is centered near 15N47W. Fresh to locally strong winds and seas to 8 ft are noted within 90 NM north of the low. Development of this low has become less likely and is in the low category within the next 48 hours. Please see the latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. For the forecast W of 65W, the Atlc surface ridge associated with the Bermuda- Azores high will persist with axis N of the area for the next several days. A strong tropical wave with very active weather is expected to move across the SE Atlantic waters tonight, across the NE Caribbean and adjacent Atlantic waters Tue and Tue night, and reach the SE Bahamas Wed night. $$ AL