000 AXNT20 KNHC 060514 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Aug 5 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tropical wave is along 15W, from 17N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. A 1012 mb low pressure center is along the wave near 11.5N. the west coast of Africa is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear to be somewhat conducive for gradual development. It is likely for a tropical depression form during the upcoming weekend, or early next week, while the system moves generally west-northwestward, across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. The chance for formation into a tropical cyclone, during the next 48 hours, is medium. Please, read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, at www.nhc.noaa.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: it is possible that any nearby precipitation may be more related to the monsoon trough. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W/51W, from 18N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: it is possible that any nearby precipitation may be more related to the monsoon trough. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W, from 17N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W/79W, from 15N southward, moving westward 10 knots. The tropical wave is moving through the area of an upper level trough whose southernmost point is in Panama. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal near 15N17W, to 14N32W, to 12N45W, 10N47W, to 08N54W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within a radius of 120 nm of 11N23W, and from 06N to 09N between 21W and 26W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 240 nm on either side of the monsoon trough between 40W and 54W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front passes through NE Florida, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, to the Texas Gulf coast near 27N. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong, and other convective debris clouds, cover the waters that are from 23N northward from 93W eastward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from 25N southward from 90W westward. The northern Yucatan Peninsula upper level cyclonic circulation center, from 24 hours ago, has moved northwestward to 23N92W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is inland, in the eastern sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. The current stationary front extends across the northern Gulf of Mexico. The front will weaken on Friday, while moving northward, and it will dissipate on Friday night just to the north of the area. Moderate to fresh E winds will pulse, off the NW Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche, every night through Tuesday night, in association with a diurnal trough. A surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters, during the next several days, producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 150 nm to the ENE of the border of eastern Honduras and NE Nicaragua. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate rainshowers, cover the Caribbean Sea from 70W westward. This includes: off the coast of Haiti, and from Cuba southward to 11N81W. Persistent moisture remains around Puerto Rico. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate rainshowers cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea, including around Puerto Rico, from 70W eastward. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the south central Caribbean Sea, through Friday night, near the coast of NE Colombia and NW Venezuela. Expect fresh east winds in the Gulf of Honduras, from late afternoon through the nighttime hours, each day through Saturday night. Fresh NE winds are expected in the Windward Passage during the evening hours this weekend. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 30N53W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 25N northward between 45W and 62W. A surface trough is along 29N51W 25N50W 23N49W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate is within 90 nm of the center in the E semicircle. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 20N northward between 40W and 60W. An upper level trough extends from the NW Bahamas, beyond Cuba along 78W/79W, to an upper level upper level cyclonic circulation center that is about 150 nm to the ENE of the border of eastern Honduras and NE Nicaragua. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate rainshowers, cover the Atlantic Ocean from 27N southward from 70W westward. Broad easterly surface wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean, from 20N northward. This wind regime exists, away from the 29N51W- 23N49W surface trough, on the southern side of large-scale anticyclonic wind flow. A 1031 mb high pressure center is near 37N40W. The current stationary front, that passes through NE Florida, will move to the north of the area by Friday morning. Fresh winds will pulse to the north of Hispaniola, including in the approaches to the Windward Passage, at night through the weekend. A surface ridge, that is associated with the Bermuda-Azores high pressure center, will persist for the next several days. $$ mt/al