000 AXNT20 KNHC 051807 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Aug 5 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is expected to move off the coasts of Senegal, The Gambia, and Guinea-Bissau later tonight. Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the eastern tropical Atlantic south of the Cabo Verde Islands by late Saturday or early Sunday while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 to 15 kt. For more information, see hurricane.gov ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 33W from 20N southward and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 31W and 34W. Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 49W from 17N southward and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are seen from 08N to 13N between 46W and 53W. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W from near the Leeward Islands at 17N southward across E Colombia, and moving W at 20 to 25 kt. Scattered showers are present near the Windward Islands, and N of Guyana and Suriname. Another Caribbean tropical wave is near 80W from 15N southward across central Panama, and moving W near 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring across Panama and near the Nicaragua coast. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough extends across the Mauritania coast near 18N16W through a weak low pressure system at 14N26W to N of Suriname at 09N56W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is flaring up S of the trough from 05N to 13N between the African coast and 24W, and near the low pressure from 12N to 15N between 26W and 29W. Scattered moderate convection is found farther W near the trough from 09N to 15N between 34W and 46W. No ITCZ is analyzed in the Atlantic Basin at this time. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front stretches across the N Gulf from SE Texas through a 1014 mb low near 29N85W to N Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring near the NW corner of the Gulf, and also from the E central Gulf to the W Florida coast. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas up to 6 ft are near this activity. Divergent winds W of an upper-level low just N of the Yucatan Peninsula at 23N91W are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the SW Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a surface ridge extends WSW from S Florida across the central Gulf to central Mexico; promoting gentle to moderate SE to SSW winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft over the central and S Gulf. For the forecast, the stationary front extending across the northern Gulf will weaken Fri while lifting northward, and dissipate Fri night just north of the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over the northern half of the basin through Fri. Moderate to fresh E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche every night through Mon night in association with a diurnal trough. Elsewhere, a surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters over the next several days producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level low SW of Jamaica at 16N79W is inducing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over the central basin. Convergent trade winds are producing similar conditions over and S of the Dominican Republic. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for additional convection across the Caribbean Basin. Tight pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressure over N Colombia continues to sustain moderate to fresh trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft across the central and S central basin. Gentle to moderate trades and seas at 2 to 3 ft are found just W of Lesser Antilles. Elsewhere in the basin, mainly moderate trades and seas at 3 to 4 ft are evident. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will continue across the south-central Caribbean through Fri night near the coast of NE Colombia and NW Venezuela. Expect fresh east winds in the Gulf of Honduras from late afternoon through the nighttime hours, each day through Fri night. Fresh NE winds are expected in the Windward Passage during the evening hours this weekend. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level low over the N central Atlantic at 32N52W is causing similar conditions N of 29N between 48W and 54W. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are found near this activity. Convergent S to SW winds to the south of a stationary front off the Georgia and Carolina coast are producing scattered showers and thunderstorms N of 30N between 77W and the NE Florida coast. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are found in this area. Convergent trade winds are creating scattered showers and a few thunderstorms N of the Dominican Republic. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections above for additional convection across the Atlantic Basin. The Atlantic ridge stretches WSW from a 1032 mb Azores high across Bermuda to central Florida. Mainly gentle to moderate trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail from 18N to 31N between the African coast and 70W, and also from 10N to 18N between 46W and the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast W of 65W, the stationary front extends from 31N80W to Jacksonville Florida. The front will lift north of the area by Fri morning. Fresh southwest winds and scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue just east of the front offshore NE Florida through this afternoon. Fresh winds will pulse north of Hispaniola, including the approaches to the Windward Passage, tonight and Fri night. Elsewhere, a surface ridge associated with the Bermuda-Azores high will persist for the next several days. $$ Chan