000 AXNT20 KNHC 050550 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Aug 5 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Two tropical waves were in the map analysis at 04/1800 UTC. The tropical wave that was more to the west has become the comparatively more prominent. An earlier low pressure center has weakened and dissipated. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 10N to 13N between 28W and 36W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W/46W, from 18N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 06N to 14N between 40W and 50W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W, from 17N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are just to the east of Martinique. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 06N to 14N between 50W and 56W. It is more probable that this precipitation may be related to the monsoon trough. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W/78W, from 15N southward, moving westward 10 knots. The tropical wave is moving through the area of an upper level trough whose southernmost point is in Panama. A tropical wave is in inland, moving away from the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, along 96W/97W, from 19N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is in Mexico, from 90 nm to 320 nm to the west of the tropical wave. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, from 140 nm to 340 nm to the east of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal near 15N17W, to 16N23W, to 12N30W, 10N46W, to 10N54W. Precipitation: scattered strong is in inland areas, and within 300 nm of the coast of Africa from 08N to 16N. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 03N to 08N between Africa and 30W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through 31N79W in the Atlantic Ocean, to NE Florida near 30N81W. The front becomes stationary, from 30N81W, to a 1014 mb low pressure center that is in south central Alabama. The stationary front continues from the 1014 mb low pressure center, to 28N90W, beyond 28N along the Texas Gulf coast, more inland. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 24N northward from 92W eastward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from the Deep South of Texas, to the Yucatan Peninsula. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the northern coastal plains of the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 45 nm of the coast of Mexico from 20N to 22N. A frontal boundary extends across the northern Gulf of Mexico. The front will weaken on Friday, as it moves northward. Scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms will continue in the northern half of the Gulf of Mexico through Friday. Moderate SW to W winds will prevail to the south of the front in the northeastern Gulf through tonight. Moderate to fresh E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche every night through Mon night in association with a diurnal trough. Elsewhere south of the front, a surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several days, producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough passes through 31N71W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 23N75W just to the south of the central Bahamas, to Panama along 78W/79W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 420 nm on either side of the upper level trough. Deep layer moisture is moving across Puerto Rico. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate is within 125 nm to the south of Puerto Rico, and within 150 nm to the north of Puerto Rico, between 64W and 70W. It is possible, also, that some of the nearby precipitation may be associated with the 31N71W-to-Panama upper level trough. Fresh trade winds across the south central Caribbean Sea will increase slightly, pulsing from fresh to strong through Friday night near the coast of NE Colombia and NW Venezuela. Expect fresh east winds in the Gulf of Honduras from late afternoon through the nighttime hours, each day through at least Fri night. Fresh NE winds are expected in the Windward Passage during the evening hours, Fri evening through Sun evening. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 32N48W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 21N northward between 40W and 60W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 210 nm of the upper level cyclonic circulation center. An upper level trough passes through 31N71W, to 23N75W just to the south of the central Bahamas, to Panama along 78W/79W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 420 nm on either side of the upper level trough. Broad easterly surface wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean, on the southern side of large-scale anticyclonic wind flow, that covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward, away from the tropical waves. A 1030 mb high pressure center is near 36N54W. A 1033 mb high pressure center is near 37N40W. A cold front extends across the NW Atlantic Ocean. The front will become stationary tonight, then move northward on Friday. Strong southwest winds and scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue just east of the front offshore NE Florida through tonight, with fresh continuing into Thu morning. Fresh winds will pulse north of Hispaniola, including the approaches to the Windward Passage, Thu night and Fri night. Elsewhere, a surface ridge associated with the Bermuda-Azores high will persist for the next several days. $$ mt/era