000 AXNT20 KNHC 041034 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Aug 4 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 26W from 23N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are from 10N to 16N between 23W and 31W. A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 39W from 18N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are from 05N to 09N between 38W and 45W. A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 53W from 17N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. No convection is noted at this time. A tropical wave is in the Caribbean Sea along 72W from 15N southward across western Venezuela, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted over the portion of the wave that extends over land at this time. A tropical wave is analyzed in the south-central Bay of Campeche along 94W from 20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. No convection is noted in the Bay of Campeche, however scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted inland over Mexico near the Chivela Pass. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 17N16W to 09N48W. In addition to the convection described in the tropical waves section above, scattered showers prevail in the vicinity of the monsoon trough from 07N to 12N. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is located just inland along the northern Gulf coast. Scattered moderate convection prevails in the vicinity of the trough mainly north of 28N and west of 89W. Upper-level divergence is supporting scattered moderate convection across the eastern half of the basin. The subtropical ridge extends WSW across the central Gulf, supporting light to gentle anticyclonic flow. Seas range between 1 to 3 ft across the Gulf of Mexico. For the forecast, the frontal boundary will remain along the northern Gulf Coast through Fri. Scattered moderate convection will continue over the northern Gulf of Mexico this week along and south of the front. Similar activity prevails north of 27N and east of 88W and will continue through today. Gentle to moderate westerly winds will prevail south of the front in the northeastern and north-central Gulf today. Moderate to fresh E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche every night through Sun night, in association with a diurnal trough. Elsewhere south of the front, a surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters over the next several days producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. A broad upper-level low is supporting scattered showers between Cuba and Jamaica, and the Windward Passage. Scattered showers associated with the East Pacific Monsoon Trough is noted inland over N Colombia. The pressure gradient in the south-central Caribbean has evidently weakened, as the latest scatterometer and surface data depict moderate to fresh trades in this area. Elsewhere in the basin, trades are gentle to moderate. Seas throughout the Caribbean are 3-5 ft. For the forecast, the Bermuda high combined with lower pressures over northern Colombia will support pulsing fresh to locally strong winds over the south-central Caribbean through the end of the week. Expect fresh E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras on Friday evening. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. The subtropical high continues to dominate the Atlantic waters. A weak surface trough is analyzed from 26N48W to 23N49W. Gentle to moderate trades prevail, turning anticyclonically around a ridge axis extending SW through the N Bahamas. North of 27N and west of 70W, fresh S winds are analyzed ahead of a stationary frontal boundary along the southeast coast of the United States. In the eastern Atlantic, fresh NE winds are noted within 240 nm of the coast of Western Sahara. Seas are 3-6 ft in the W Atlantic, and generally 5-7 ft over the remainder of the discussion waters. For the forecast W of 65W, fresh to strong S to SW winds and scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue offshore NE Florida today to the south of a stationary front, which will linger along the U.S. East Coast for the rest of the week. Fresh winds will pulse north of Hispaniola, including the approaches to the Windward Passage, Thu night and Fri night. Otherwise, a surface ridge associated with the Bermuda-Azores high will persist for the next several days. $$ ERA