000 AXNT20 KNHC 031759 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Aug 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 21W from 23N southward and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 17N between the African coast and 22W. Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from 17N southward and moving W around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 06N to 09N between 31W and 41W. A third Atlantic tropical wave is along 47W from 18N southward and moving W around 15 kt. Scattered showers are seen from 05N to 08N between 44W and 49W. A Caribbean tropical wave is near 67W from 15N southward across N Venezuela, and moving W around 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring across N Venezuela and Guyana, and adjacent waters. The Caribbean tropical wave previously located near 86W across Honduras and Nicaragua has moved W over SE Mexico, Guatemala and the E Pacific. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms linger across the waters N of Honduras. It will be mentioned in the Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion from this point forward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough extends across the Mauritania-Senegal border near 17N17W through a low pressure system at 13N24W to 07N48W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is evident near the low from 10N to 15N between 23W and 31W. No segments of the ITCZ are analyzed at this time. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough along 29N, S of a frontal boundary across the Gulf States is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms across the N Gulf, and the Big Band area of Florida. Locally moderate to fresh winds and seas up to 4 ft are near stronger thunderstorms. Otherwise, a surface ridge extending west- southwestward across the central Gulf is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft across the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary along the northern Gulf Coast, or over the northern Gulf, through Fri. Expect scattered thunderstorms to continue over the northern Gulf of Mexico this week, near and just south of the front. Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly winds will prevail south of the front in the northeastern and north-central Gulf through Wed. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche every night through Sat night, in association with a diurnal trough. Elsewhere south of the front, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters over the next several days producing gentle to moderate winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The eastern end of the E Pacific monsoon trough is producing numerous moderate to isolated strong convection over the SW corner of the Caribbean Basin, including the coast of Nicaragua, Panama, Costa Rica and NW Colombia. An upper-level low just NE of Cuba near 23N75W is inducing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near Jamaica, Hispaniola and E Cuba. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on additional convection in the Caribbean Basin. Tighter pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressure over N Colombia and Venezuela is creating moderate to fresh with locally strong trade winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft over the S central basin. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail across the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the Bermuda high and associated Atlantic ridge combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to locally strong winds over the south-central Caribbean through the remainder of the week. Expect fresh to strong E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and again by Fri night. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Convergent trade winds are triggering scattered showers and a few thunderstorms N of E Cuba, Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands. Convergent SE winds S of a frontal boundary over the Georgia-S Carolina coast are coupling with divergent winds aloft to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms near and E of the Georgia and Florida coast, and the NW Bahamas. Locally moderate to fresh winds and seas up to 5 ft are near heavier showers and strong thunderstorms. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections above for additional convection across the Atlantic Basin. The Atlantic ridge axis extends west-southwestward from the 1031 mb Azores high across Bermuda to Florida. Light to gentle winds and seas at 3 to 4 ft are present near these features N of 24N between 47W and just E of the Bahamas. Moderate to locally fresh trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are found from 10N to 24N between 47W and the Lesser Antilles. Similar winds with seas at 6 to 8 ft are evident N of 9N between the African coast and 47W. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh S to SW winds prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 65W, the surface ridge associated with the Bermuda-Azores high extends from 31N65W to near Havana Cuba. The ridge will persist over the next several days. A stationary front will linger along the U.S. East Coast for the rest of the week. This will cause fresh southerly winds to continue off the NE Florida coast through Thu, locally strong this afternoon through tonight, along with showers and thunderstorms. Fresh winds will pulse north of Hispaniola, including the approaches to the Windward Passage, through Thu and increase to fresh to strong by Thu night. $$ Chan