000 AXNT20 KNHC 030536 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Aug 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A newly analyzed Atlantic tropical wave is along 18W from 23N southward. Scattered showers are from 11N to 17N east of 20W. An Atlantic tropical wave is along 32W from 17N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 10N between 28W and 38W. Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 45W from 18N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. No convection is noted at this time. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 64W from 15N southward into Venezuela, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time in the E Caribbean. Scattered showers are noted over SE Venezuela. Another Caribbean tropical wave is along 86W from 20N southward across Honduras and Nicaragua, moving W at approximately 10 kt. The convection associated with this wave is located in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the border of Senegal and Mauritania near 16N16W to 09N32W. A surface trough is then analyzed from 09N32W to 07N42W, where NE winds turn cyclonically to the W. Scatterometer data shows fresh W to SW winds south of the trough axis and monsoon trough from 05N to 08N between 23W and 38W. In addition to the convection described in the tropical waves section, an area of scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough from 09N to 13N between 24W and 28W. No segments of the ITCZ are analyzed at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 0300 UTC, a diurnal surface trough is analyzed along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, from 21N90W to 19N92W. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds were detected near the trough axis by ASCAT. Also at 0300 UTC, a pre-frontal trough is analyzed along the NE Gulf Coast from 31N84W to 30N89W. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the Florida Panhandle and up to 60 nm off the FL coast between 82W and 86W. Elsewhere in the basin, the subtropical ridge axis extends through the central Gulf and supports light to gentle anticyclonic flow. Seas are 1-3 ft across the basin, except 2-4 ft in the NE Gulf. For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the Gulf waters over the next several days producing gentle to moderate winds. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds will pulse off the Yucatan peninsula into the Bay of Campeche every night through Sat night. A frontal boundary, currently located over the northern Gulf states, will slowly move southward over the northern Gulf of Mexico through Fri. Expect moderate to locally fresh southerly winds south of the front in the northern Gulf with showers and thunderstorms. CARIBBEAN SEA... The latest scatterometer data shows fresh to strong NE winds in the Windward Passage with 4-6 ft seas. Additionally, fresh to locally strong trades are observed in the central Caribbean, from 12N to 15N between 72W and 75W. Moderate trades prevail in the remainder of the central Caribbean, with light to gentle trades in the eastern and western Caribbean. Seas of 6-8 ft accompany the area of strongest winds in the central Caribbean, with 3-6 ft seas analyzed elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores high combined with the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to locally strong winds over the south-central Caribbean for the remainder of the week. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. Expect fresh to strong E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras Tue night and again by Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The subtropical ridge axis extends west-southwestward from the 1033 mb high across Bermuda to Florida. In the W Atlantic, gentle to moderate trades veer to the SW, increasing to locally fresh speeds north of 28N west of 78W. In the E Atlantic, Strong NE winds were detected between the Canary Islands. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, moderate to locally fresh trades prevail east of 45W with gentle to moderate trades west of 45W. An area of 8-10 ft seas in NE to E swell is within 15N35W TO 18N40W TO 27N39W TO 28N35W TO 15N35W. Seas are 3-5 ft west of 70W, and 4-7 ft in the remainder of the discussion waters. For the forecast W of 65W, the Bermuda-Azores high will dominate the forecast waters over the next several days. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage through Fri. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will prevail off the NE Florida coast ahead of a frontal boundary through Thu along with showers and thunderstorms. $$ Mahoney