803 AXNT20 KNHC 021802 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Aug 2 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W from 18N southward and moving W near 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 07N to 11N between 17W and 30W. Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 42W from 19N southward and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 03N to 07N between 38W and 43W. A third Atlantic tropical wave is along 57W from 13N southwestward across NW Guyana, and moving W near 20 kt. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are noted from 06N to 10N between 52W and 59W, N of Guyana, Suriname and French Guiana. This wave will reach the Windward Islands this evening and slightly increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms. A Caribbean tropical wave is near 83W from 20N southward across E Honduras and Nicaragua to the Costa Rica-Panama border, and moving W near 10 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are evident W of the Cayman Islands and across E Honduras and Nicaragua. Enhanced by the eastern end of the E Pacific monsoon trough, numerous moderate to strong convection is flaring up across the SW corner of the Caribbean Basin. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough extends through a low pressure system centered along the Senegal coast near 14N17W to 09N30W to 08N45W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen near the low and monsoon trough from 11N to 18N between the African coast and 21W. Scattered moderate convection is found farther W along the monsoon trough from 04N to 11N between 30W and 38W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Convergent surface winds S of a cold front across the Gulf States are coupling with divergent winds aloft to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms from the N central Gulf to the Big Band area of Florida. Locally moderate to fresh winds and seas up to 4 ft are near these showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, a surface ridge associated with a 1019 mb high over the E central Gulf at 25N87W is maintaining light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft across the Gulf. For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the Gulf waters over the next several days producing gentle to moderate winds. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds will pulse off the Yucatan peninsula into the Bay of Campeche every night through Thu night. The cold front across the Gulf States is forecast to reach the northern Gulf of Mexico late today into Tue. Expect moderate to locally fresh southerly winds south of the front in the northern Gulf through at least Wed with showers and thunderstorms. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on convection. Tight pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressure over N Colombia and Venezuela is creating fresh to strong trades and seas of 8 to 10 ft over the S central basin. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are occurring across the N central and SW basin. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores high combined with the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through this morning with seas peaking at 10 ft. Then, fresh to locally strong winds will prevail the remainder of the week. A tropical wave moving across the western Caribbean will support some shower and thunderstorm activity today. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Atlantic ridge extends west-southwestward from the 1033 mb Azores high across Bermuda to Florida. An elongated upper-level low is just E of the Bahamas near 26N74W. Convergent SE to S winds along the ridge axis are interacting with the upper low to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms over SE Florida, the NW Bahamas and off the N Florida and Georgia coast. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are near these showers and thunderstorms. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections above for additional convection across the Atlantic Basin. Light to gentle winds and seas at 3 to 4 ft related to the Atlantic ridge can be found N of 24N between 43W and just E of the Bahamas. Moderate to fresh trades and seas at 7 to 10 ft are present N of 14N between the African coast and 43W. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present from 10N to 24N between 43W and the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail across the remainder of the basin. For the forecast W of 65W, the Bermuda-Azores high will dominate the forecast waters over the next several days. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage through Fri. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will prevail off the NE Florida coast ahead of a frontal boundary through Thu. Showers and thunderstorms will continue off the Florida coast today. $$ Chan