427 
AXNT20 KNHC 021028
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Aug 2 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 25W from 19N 
southward, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is surrounded by dry and 
dusty Saharan Air Layer, inhibiting the development of showers and
thunderstorms.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 39W from 19N 
southward, moving W at 10 kt. No convection is noted with the 
wave at this time.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 54W from 13N
southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted near the coast of Suriname and Guyana, S of 08N between 55W 
to 58W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has an axis along 83W from 20N
southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are 
noted from 19N to 21N between 82W and 83W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 09N28W to 08N44W. The ITCZ continues from 08N44W to 07N53W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along and south of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ from 02N to 15N and E of 50W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends across the Gulf of Mexico anchored by a
1019 mb high near 27N88W. A trough is analyzed in the eastern Bay
of Campeche from 21N91W to 19N92W. Scattered thunderstorms are
noted in this region, S of 20N between 94W and 95W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed throughout the northern Gulf, N of
25N between 83W and 94W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across
the basin with seas 1 to 3 ft. 

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters over the next
several days producing gentle to moderate winds. Moderate to
locally fresh NE to E winds will pulse off the Yucatan peninsula
into the Bay of Campeche every night through Thu night. A cold
front is forecast to reach the northern Gulf of Mexico late today
into Tue. Expect moderate to locally fresh southerly winds in the 
northern Gulf through Tue with showers and thunderstorms. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted in the
SW Caribbean near the monsoon trough, S of 12N between 74W and
83W. The strongest convection is off the Colombian coast. Isolated
thunderstorms are also noted in the western Gulf of Honduras.
Fresh to strong trade winds are still continuing across the
central Caribbean with gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. North
of Colombia, seas range 8 to 10 ft with seas 3 to 6 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores high combined with the Colombian
low will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds in the
south-central Caribbean through this morning with seas peaking at
10 ft. Fresh to locally strong winds will prevail the remainder 
of the week. A tropical wave moving into the western Caribbean 
will support some shower and thunderstorm activity through this
morning.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Off the coast of Florida and across the northern Bahamas, 
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 24N
to 31N between 74W and 80W. Fresh to locally strong southerly
winds are occurring with seas 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, ridging from
the 1031 mb Azores High extends across the basin. A trough is
analyzed north of the Leeward Islands from 28N63W to 18N63W. No
significant convection is noted near this feature. Quiescent
conditions prevail across the rest of the basin with gentle to 
moderate winds and seas 4 to 6 ft. 

For the forecast W of 65W, the Bermuda-Azores high will dominate 
the forecast waters over the next several days. Fresh to locally 
strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola, including approaches 
to the Windward Passage through Fri. Moderate to fresh southerly 
winds will prevail off the NE Florida coast ahead of a frontal 
boundary through Thu. Showers and thunderstorms will continue off 
the Florida coast through Tue. 

$$
AReinhart