000 AXNT20 KNHC 012347 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Aug 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2340 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tight gradient between the Atlantic High and lower pressure across N Africa has been producing gale winds near the Canary Islands and Agadir, and W of the coast of W Sahara and Morocco. A Gale Warning issued by Meteo-France for the nearby marine areas remains in effect through at least 02/0300 UTC. Expect N to NE winds of Force 8 on the Beaufort Scale with rough seas. Please see the High Seas Warning issued by Meteo-France at gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A newly analyzed Atlantic tropical wave is near 22W from 18N southward and moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N to 11N between 18W and 26W. Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W from 19N southward and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found from 04N to 08N between 30W and 37W. A third Atlantic tropical wave is near 51W from 13N southward and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted inland and near the coast of French Guiana and Suriname. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W from 19N southward across Panama to the Pacific Ocean, and moving W at 15 kt. Most of the moderate to strong convection associated with this tropical wave is along Panama and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 16N to 20N and E across Jamaica. A tropical wave is over the Bay of Campeche near 94W, southward across SE Mexico to the Pacific Ocean and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring over the bay. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 13N16W to 09N33W to 08N43W. The ITCZ then continues from 08N43W to 06N51W, just N of the French Guiana-Brazil border. Aside to the convection mentioned with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is present about 90 nm to the south of the boundary. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough reaches west-southwestward from Georgia across the Florida Panhandle to near New Orleans. Convergent surface winds near and W of this feature are triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle and the adjacent waters. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for additional convection. Otherwise, a 1019 mb high over the W central Gulf near 26N93W and associated surface ridge dominate the Gulf with light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft. For the forecast, A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters over the Next several days producing gentle to moderate winds. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds will pulse off the Yucatan peninsula into the Bay of Campeche every night through Thu night. A cold front is forecast to reach the northern Gulf of Mexico late Mon into Tue. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along the frontal boundary. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent trade winds are producing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over the central basin from 14N to 15N between 70W and 73W. Otherwise, tight pressure gradient between the Atlantic High and lower pressure across Colombia is creating fresh to strong trade winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft over the S central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are found over the N central basin. Mainly moderate trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores high combined with the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Mon morning with seas building to 10 or 11 ft. Then, fresh to locally strong winds will prevail the remainder of the week. A tropical wave moving into the western Caribbean will support some shower and thunderstorm activity tonight and Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warning near the Canary Islands. For information on convection across the Atlantic Basin, refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections. A surface ridge extends west-southwestward from a 1033 mb Azores high across Bermuda to Florida. This feature support mostly light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft N of 20N between 39W and the Bahamas, and also from 10N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. A surface trough 29N57W to 20N59W with a few showers in the vicinity. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 6 to 9 ft are present N of 20N between 20W and 29W. Strong to gale winds and seas of 9 to 11 ft are seen N of 27N between the NW African coast and 15W. Gentle to moderate S to WSW winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast W of 65W, the Bermuda-Azores high will dominate the forecast waters over the next several days. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage through Fri. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will prevail off the NE Florida coast ahead of a frontal boundary through Tue. $$ Torres