000 AXNT20 KNHC 302358 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Jul 31 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has a Gale Warning for the marine areas of Agadir and Canaries for N to NE gale winds in effect from 1200 UTC Jul 31 to 0000 UTC Aug 1 at least. See the Metarea II forecast from Meteo-France at gmdss.org/II.html . ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 33W from 14N southward, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is associated with this wave from 5N-10N between 25W- 35W. A second Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 59W from 19N southward. This wave is moving westward around 15 kt. No convection is associated with the wave at this time. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 82W from 20N southward into the eastern Pacific. It is moving westward at around 5-10 kts. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 9N- 14N between 78W-83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Senegal near 15N17W to 06N39W. At this time, there are no segments of the ITCZ analyzed in the tropical Atlantic. In addition to the convection described in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 8N-15N east of 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... Atlantic high pressure extends westward across the basin. Winds are tranquil over the Gulf of Mexico this evening. Seas are 3-4 ft over the SW Gulf and 1-2 ft elsewhere. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 22N and west of 95W. For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the Gulf region during the upcoming weekend and early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section above for details on the tropical wave in the western Caribbean. A moderate pressure gradient from a surface ridge north of the Caribbean to lower pressure over northern South America is supporting fresh to strong E trades over the central Caribbean. Elsewhere the trades are moderate or weaker. Seas are 6-8 ft over the central Caribbean and 4-6 ft elsewhere. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, no significant convection is noted this evening. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean will continue through early Mon, then diminish to fresh speeds through Tue night as Atlantic high pressure weakens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure ridging dominates the Tropical Atlantic from a 1029 mb Azores High at 40N30W west-southwestward to the northern Bahamas. In the central Atlantic, a weak trough extends from 21N43W to 25N46W with no significant convection noted at this time. Just north of Hispaniola, fresh to strong E trades are present. Elsewhere, the ridge is sustaining moderate or weaker trades across the basin. Seas are 5-6 ft south of 22N and 3-4 ft north of 22N. Aside from the convection associated with the monsoon trough and tropical wave, no additional convection is noted. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure ridging along 26N will change little into early next week. Expect fresh to locally strong east winds to pulse during the late afternoons and at night just off the northern coast of Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage through early next week. Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are expected across the far northwest waters Sun night through Mon night. $$ Landsea