000 AXNT20 KNHC 270555 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Jul 27 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic extending from 04N to 20N with axis near 28W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is embedded within the Saharan Air Layer, which is hindering convection at this time. A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean extending S of 15N with axis near 64W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Strong vertical shear and some low-level dry airmass are limiting convection to isolated showers to S of 17W and E of 65W. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean extending S of 20N with axis near 77W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Upper-level divergence is supporting scattered showers and isolated tstms over Hispaniola, Jamaica, and its adjacent waters. A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean extending S of 21N with axis near 85W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered to isolated showers are over Nicaragua and Costa Rica adjacent waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N16W to 06N33W to 07N41W. The ITCZ continues from 07N41W to 08N59W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N to 10N between 30W and 52W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient across the basin supports light to gentle variable winds across the gulf with seas in the 1 to 3 ft range. A middle to upper-level low over the western basin supports scattered to isolated showers over the NE Mexico adjacent waters. Over the eastern half of the basin, a surface trough pressure supports similar shower activity on the SE gulf and Yucatan Peninsula. Weak high pressure persists across the northern Gulf along 29N while a trough extends from near Tampa Bay, Florida to 24N90W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist near and south of the trough axis through tonight as if drifts westward. Atlantic high pressure will begin to build westward into the Gulf region Wed and Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Three tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean supporting some localized shower activity. Aside from showers, two of these waves are supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean with seas to 5 ft. See the tropical waves section for further details. Gentle to moderate trade winds are expected through early Wed. The exception will be moderate to locally fresh winds near the coast of Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Winds will increase across the E and central Caribbean Thu into Fri as the Atlantic ridge builds westward in the wake of a trough moving westward across the Atlantic waters north of the Greater Antilles. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge dominates the subtropical Atlantic waters and supports and provides mostly fair weather with gentle to moderate winds and seas in the 3 to 5 ft range. A surface trough is analyzed near 23N54W to 16N54W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the trough. Otherwise, diffluent flow aloft supports scattered showers NE of the Bahamas. A weak Atlantic ridge extends from SE of Bermuda to near the NW Bahamas. 1012 mb low pressure is moving NW and inland across coastal Georgia. An elongated area of showers and thunderstorms spreading northward of 20N between 61W and 67W will persist north of 25N tonight through Tue then diminish Tue night. A broad inverted trough along 55W will enter the SE waters early Tue and move westward and across the Bahamas through Thu. $$ Torres