000 AXNT20 KNHC 270004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Jul 27 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic extending from 04N to 20N with axis near 27W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is embedded within the Saharan Air Layer, which is hindering convection at this time. A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean extending S of 17N with axis near 63W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Strong vertical shear and some low level dry air are limiting convection to isolated showers to S of 17W and E of 65W. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean extending S of 20N with axis near 75W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Upper level divergence is supporting scattered showers and isolated tstms over Hispaniola and its adjacent waters. A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean extending S of 21N with axis near 84W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered to isolated showers are over Nicaragua and Costa Rica adjacent waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 07N30W to 08N42W. The ITCZ continues from 08N42W to 08N55W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N to 10N between 16W and 52W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient across the basin supports light to gentle variable winds across the gulf with seas in the 1 to 3 ft range. A middle to upper level low over the western basin supports scattered to isolated showers over the NE Mexico adjacent waters. Over the eastern half of the basin, a col of low pressure supports similar shower activity on the SE gulf. Atlantic high pressure will begin to build westward into the Gulf region Wed and Thu. Otherwise, a surface trough will come off the Yucatan peninsula at night supporting moderate to fresh winds in the Bay of Campeche. CARIBBEAN SEA... Three tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean supporting some localized shower activity. Aside from showers, two of these waves are supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean with seas to 5 ft. See the tropical waves section for further details. These conditions will prevail and expand to the SW Caribbean by Tue night as the Atlantic ridge builds westward and into the northern Caribbean waters. This will result in the development of fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean as well as the Gulf of Honduras through early in the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge dominates the subtropical Atlantic waters and supports and provides mostly fair weather with gentle to moderate winds and seas in the 3 to 5 ft range. Otherwise, diffluent flow aloft supports scattered showers NE of the Bahamas. A 1011 mb low pressure center is over SE Georgia adjacent waters. Development of this system is no longer likely before the low moves inland over Georgia tonight. A broad inverted trough will enter the waters N of Puerto Rico Tue night and move westward and across the Bahamas through Thu night. $$ Ramos