000 AXNT20 KNHC 201027 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Jul 20 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 24W and south of 17N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted across the southern portion of the wave south of 10N between 22W-31W. An Atlantic tropical wave extends it axis along 45W from 20N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. This wave is moving through an area of large-scale subsidence therefore, no deep convective precipitation is associated with it. The northern extension of a tropical wave extends across Central America reaching the west Caribbean. The wave axis extends along 85W and south of 19N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted south of 10N between 82W-88W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 13N17W to 07N47W. The ITCZ extends from 07N47W to 07N58W. Scattered showers prevail south of 10N and east of 18W, and within 200 nm on either side of the monsoon trough mainly between 30W-40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin extending along 27N. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevailing across the basin. An outflow boundary extends along 30N and west of 91W enhancing convection across the far north Gulf waters north of 28N and west of 90W. For the forecast...as the ridge sinks southward during the next few days, tranquil conditions will prevail across the basin. No tropical cyclone activity is expected over Gulf through the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. Over the southwest Caribbean, the monsoon trough extends along 10N between 76W-83W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the trough mainly south of 10N. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong trades prevailing across the south central portion of the basin south of 18N between 70W-82W, while gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere. The Bermuda High north of the area combined with low pressure N Colombia will continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds over the central Caribbean through most of the week. Expect an increase in areal coverage of strong wind speeds through Wed night, reaching as far north as Hispaniola adjacent waters. Winds near the coast of NE Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela will pulse to near-gale force at times, through Thu morning. Fresh to strong E winds will occur in the afternoons and early evenings in the Windward Passage through midweek. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Wed night and Thu night. No tropical cyclone activity is expected through the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A surface ridge passes extends along 27N across the basin. Light to gentle winds, and sea heights of 2 to 4 ft prevail from 25N northward. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds, and sea heights of 4 to 6 ft have been in the waters from 10N to 25N. Fresh winds and sea heights from 4 to 6 ft prevail from 20N to 24N between 71W and 77W. Gentle to moderate trade winds, and sea heights ranging from 3 to 5 ft cover the remainder of the basin. Fresh to strong E winds will pulse in the afternoons and evenings north of Hispaniola for the next several days. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere south of 22N. Surface ridging associated with the Bermuda High will slowly sink southward to 27N by midweek, leading toward quiescent conditions across the remainder of the western Atlantic. No tropical cyclone activity is expected through the week. $$ ERA