000 AXNT20 KNHC 181011 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Jul 18 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave extends it axis along 36W from 21N southward, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. This wave is moving through an area of large-scale subsidence therefore, no deep convective precipitation is associated with it. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 65W from 20N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 11N-16N between 67W-70W. A Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 83W from 17N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the wave's environment from 04N-17N between 80W-86W. A tropical wave is moving through the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico along 94W from 21N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 22N between 93W- 97W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends fro 12N17W to 07N35W. The ITCZ extends from 06N38W to 06N53W. Scattered showers prevail within 60 nm on either side of the monsoon trough mainly east of 34W, and along the ITCZ between 40W-45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The northern extension of a tropical wave extends cross the SW gulf waters. Refer to the section above for details. Surface ridging prevails across the basin extending along 29N/30N. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong winds in the vicinity of the wave across the Bay of Campeche, while gentle to moderate east to southeast winds prevail elsewhere. For the forecast...as the ridge sinks southward during the next few days, tranquil conditions will prevail across the Gulf of Mexico. No tropical cyclone activity is expected over Gulf through midweek. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Over the southwest Caribbean, the monsoon trough extends along 10N between 76W-82W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the trough mainly south of 11N. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong trades prevailing across the south central portion of the basin south of 16N between 71W-82W, while gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere. The Bermuda High north of the area combined with lower pressure over N Colombia will continue to support fresh to strong easterly winds over the south-central Caribbean through most of the week. Expect an increase in speed and areal coverage from Mon night through Wed night while reaching as far west as the Hispaniola adjacent waters. Fresh to strong E winds will occur in the afternoons and early evenings for the next several days in the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras by Thu. No tropical cyclone activity is expected through midweek. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. A surface ridge passes extends along 30N across the basin. Light to gentle winds, and sea heights of 2 to 4 ft prevail from 24N northward. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds, and sea heights of 4 to 6 ft have been in the waters from 12N to 24N. Fresh to strong winds and sea heights from 4 to 6 ft prevail from 20N to 21N between 71W and 74W. Gentle to moderate trade winds, and sea heights ranging from 3 to 5 ft cover the remainder of the basin. Fresh to strong E winds will occur in the afternoons and early evenings to the north of Hispaniola for the next several days. Ridging, associated with a weak Bermuda High, will move slowly southward to 27N by midweek, leading toward quiescent conditions across the remainder of the SW N Atlantic waters. No tropical cyclone activity is expected through midweek. $$ ERA