170 AXNT20 KNHC 161000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Jul 16 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic from 02N to 20N with axis along 26W, moving westward at 15 knots. The wave is embedded in the dry and dusty Saharan Air Layer, which is limiting convection to scattered moderate from 05N to 12N between 16W and 28W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic from 01N to 20N with axis near 47W, moving west at 20 knots. This wave is also embedded in the dry and dusty Saharan Air Layer, which is limiting the convection to 05N to 11N between 36W and 49W. A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean S of 20N with axis near 65W, moving W at 10-15 knots. The wave is embedded in a region of strong vertical shear that is limiting the convection to scattered moderate from 11N to 14N between 63W and 67W. A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean S of 21N with axis near 81W, moving W at 15-20 knots. Scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms are N of 19N between 78W and 85W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 12N17W to 08N33W where the ITCZ continues to 05N46W. The ITCZ then resumes W of a tropical wave from 05N49W to 05N53W. For information regarding convection, see the tropical waves section. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging and a weak pressure gradient across the basin continue to support gentle to moderate return flow with seas ranging between 1-3 ft per latest altimeter data. Otherwise, an upper level inverted trough and a col of low pressure in the middle levels is supporting isolated showers across the east- central and northeast gulf. Surface ridging extending from the SE CONUS will remain nearly stationary through the middle of next week and will support the continuation of gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds will pulse at night over the Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters through the forecast period as a diurnal surface trough moves into the Bay of Campeche before dissipating. CARIBBEAN SEA... Middle to upper level diffluent flow over the NW Caribbean is supporting scattered showers and tstms in the lee side of Cuba and adjacent waters. Moderate to fresh trade winds are in this region of convection. Similar convection is the SE Caribbean associated with a tropical wave. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds dominate the central and eastern basin with seas from 3 to 6 ft, except the Gulf of Venezuela and Colombia adjacent waters where winds have fresh to strong speeds. High pressure N of the area extending a ridge to the northern Caribbean will continue to support moderate to fresh winds across the central and eastern basin through today, except in the south- central Caribbean where winds will be fresh to strong. Winds in the south-central Caribbean are expected to expand in areal coverage this weekend through Tue night as two tropical waves move across the eastern and central basin. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse at night in the Windward Passage through Sun night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Bermuda and Azores high extend a ridge to the entire Atlantic waters N of 15N. This is supporting moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds over the eastern and central Atlantic with seas in the 3 to 6 ft range. Over the SW Atlantic, a weaker pressure gradient supports light to gentle variable winds N of 25N and moderate to locally fresh winds S of 25N, including Puerto Rico and Hispaniola adjacent waters. Otherwise, a weakness in the ridge is analyzed as a surface trough that is generating scattered showers NE of the Bahamas. Surface high pressure over the Georgia and South Carolina offshore waters will maintain moderate to fresh E winds across the area south of 25N. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds will pulse at night north of Hispaniola through the forecast period as two tropical waves propagate westward S of the area. $$ Ramos