000 AXNT20 KNHC 152318 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Jul 15 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic from 05N to 21N with axis along 24W, moving west at 15 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 07N-13N between 15W and 24W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 02N to 21N with axis along 42W, moving west at around 20 kt. Dry air encompasses this wave and no significant convection is occurring in association with it. A tropical wave has recently crossed the Lesser Antilles and entered the eastern Caribbean, extending from 06N to 16N with axis near 63W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted S of 13N between 58W and 63W. A tropical wave stretches from Cuba to Panama along 79W, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection has developed in association with this wave over waters near Cuba and Jamaica. A tropical wave previously extended into the far SW Gulf of Mexico has moved west into Mexico and the eastern Pacific, with associated convection moving out of the basin. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean from northern Mauritania near 20N16W to 07N34W. The ITCZ continues from 07N34W to 07N42W and from 05N45W to 04N54W. Convection in the vicinity of these features is primarily associated with tropical waves, described in the Tropical Waves section above. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge positioned over the SE United States extends along the northern coast of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate E-SE wind flow prevails across most of the basin with seas in the 2-4 ft range. A surface trough has developed along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, although the only convection in the Gulf is associated with an upper level trough and is noted from 23N to 27N between 84W and 87W. Surface ridging will prevail just north of the basin through this weekend, supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the Gulf of Mexico. The ridge will slide southward over the northern Gulf early next week, causing winds and seas to diminish further Mon and Tue. Fresh to locally strong NE winds will pulse tonight over the waters to the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula, associated with a diurnal surface trough moving into the Bay of Campeche. CARIBBEAN SEA... A pressure gradient between a 1024 mb Bermuda High and a 1010 mb Colombian Low is promoting strong NE trades just north of Colombia with fresh and weaker trades prevailing elsewhere across the Caribbean. Seas are 6-8 ft over the central and SW Caribbean and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves described in the section above, dry conditions prevail throughout the basin. For the forecast, high pressure between Bermuda and Georgia will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Fri. These winds will then expand in areal coverage this weekend through early next week as a tropical wave enters the eastern Caribbean late Sat and moves into the central Caribbean late Sun. Fresh winds will pulse at night in the Windward Passage through Sun night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information about these features. Expansive high pressure is dominating the wind flow over most of the Atlantic basin. Fresh trades are occurring off the N coast of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong NE winds are impacting waters in the vicinity of the Canary Islands due to the pressure gradient between the high pressure to the west and lower pressure over Africa. Elsewhere, generally moderate trades prevail S of 23N, with gentle winds to the north. Seas of 3-6 ft dominate the waters. A surface trough is noted from 29N62W to 22N67W. Although convection associated with this trough has diminished, new convection has developed to the west where a new trough has formed from 30N68W to 26N72W. For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, high pressure centered E of Georgia will maintain moderate winds across the area, except moderate to fresh south of 23N. A tropical wave will bring fresh winds to Puerto Rico adjacent waters Sat night through Mon night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola through the forecast period, strongest Sat night and Sun night. $$ KONARIK