000 AXNT20 KNHC 132323 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Jul 14 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 23W, from 13N southward, moving westward from 10 to 15 kt. Monsoon trough related precipitation surrounds this tropical wave mainly south of 11N. An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 53W, from 13N southward, moving westward from 10 to 15 kt. ITCZ related precipitation surrounds this tropical wave. A Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 83W from western Cuba southward, moving westward from 10 to 15 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted along and west of the wave axis affecting Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 09N30W. The ITCZ continues from 09N30W to 09N51W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the monsoon trough, while scattered showers prevail along the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by high pressure centers analyzed over southeastern U.S. Latest scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate SE winds across most of the basin, and moderate to fresh SE winds prevailing over the Florida Straits and SE Gulf waters. The northern extension of a tropical wave prevails over South Florida enhancing convection over the peninsula and adjacent waters. To the south, the combination of an approaching tropical wave from the western Caribbean and upper-level diffluence is enhancing scattered to numerous moderate convection over the Yucatan Channel and Peninsula. The surface ridge just north of the area will maintain gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas across much of the Gulf through Fri. A surface trough will develop each day over the Yucatan and shift westward into the SW Gulf. This will support fresh to occasionally strong winds off the northwest Yucatan Peninsula and eastern Bay of Campeche during the overnight hours through mid week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. The combination of the tropical wave over the western Caribbean and upper-level diffluence is enhancing scattered to numerous moderate convection affecting the area west of 83W. No significant convection is noted elsewhere. Expect strong to near-gale force winds and sea heights ranging from 8 to 13 ft from 18N southward between 69W and 82W through the next 24 hours. The tropical wave will continue to move west of the basin through Wed. High pressure centered north of the region will continue to support strong to near-gale force tradewinds and rough seas into Wed over the central Caribbean, and strong NE winds across the Windward Passage tonight. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras late Wed. Winds and seas will diminish across most of the basin from Wed through Fri, while fresh to strong winds will pulse Thu and Fri in the Gulf of Venezuela and near the coast of NE Colombia. Looking ahead, tradewinds and related seas will increase over the south-central Caribbean and around the Leeward Islands this weekend as the next tropical wave reaches the eastern Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A middle level to upper level trough extends from South Carolina to SE Florida. Deep tropical moisture also prevails in the area, enhanced by the northern extension of a tropical wave that currently is analyzed over the western Caribbean. With these, scattered to numerous moderate convection prevails across the west Atlantic west of 77W. To the east, the reflection of an upper level low is analyzed as a trough that extends from 28N54W to 19N60W. Scattered showers are noted within 300 nm west of the trough. Another surface trough is analyzed from 30N44W to 18N48W. No significant convection is noted wit this trough. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. The ridge north of the area will maintain gentle to moderate E winds across the basin, with fresh to strong winds pulsing off the coast of Hispaniola tonight. Looking ahead, winds and seas will build Sat south of 22N and north of the Leeward Islands as a tropical wave approaches the region from the east. Expect fresh to strong winds to again pulse off Hispaniola by Sat and Sun. $$ ERA