000 AXNT20 KNHC 101024 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Jul 10 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 32W/33W, from 10N southward, moving westward from 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 04N between 30W and 34W. A tropical wave is along 49W/50W, from 23N southward, moving westward from 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 10N to 12N between 43W and 47W. A tropical wave is along 71W/72W, from 15N southward, moving westward from 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 13N between 70W and 72W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Senegal and Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W to 04N25W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 04N25W to 03N30W, and from 03N35W to 04N48W. In addition to the convection described in the Tropical Wave section, scattered moderate convection is active from 02N to 04N between 42W and 44W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge reaches from the western Atlantic across the far northeast Gulf and into the western Florida Panhandle. Light breezes and 1 to 2 ft seas are noted across the northeast Gulf under the ridge axis. Fresh SE winds are noted over the northwest Gulf, between the ridge and lower pressure over Mexico. A surface trough is analyzed off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, supporting fresh NE to E winds over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere gentle to moderate E to SE breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are evident. Scattered thunderstorms are noted off the coast of Veracruz. No other significant weather is observed at this time. For the forecast, the ridge will lift north of the area early next week, supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist through mid week. The exception will be fresh to occasionally strong winds off the northwest Yucatan Peninsula and eastern Bay of Campeche during overnight hours through mid week, related to the recurrence of surface trough that forms during the late afternoon each day. CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong to near-gale force trade winds and 8 to 12 ft seas are noted across much of the central Caribbean, between high pressure north of the area and lower pressure over Colombia and western Venezuela. A scatterometer satellite pass showed another area of fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Earlier altimeter satellite data indicated seas were possibly reaching 8 ft over the Gulf of Honduras, although this may be subsiding. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted elsewhere, with 5 to 7 ft seas in the eastern Caribbean and 4 to 6 ft seas in the northwest Caribbean. A sharp upper trough reaches from over Haiti southward toward Panama. Associated divergent flow aloft along with convergent trade wind flow in the lower levels is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over the far southwest Caribbean from the coast of Colombia to southeast Nicaragua. For the forecast, high pressure centered north of the area combined with the Colombian low will support strong to occasionally near gale force trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through mid week. Strong trades in the Gulf of Honduras will diminish Sun, but fresh trades will pulse nightly through the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 65W, light breezes are noted along the ridge axis, with moderate SW winds north of the axis and moderate to fresh E winds south of the axis, pulsing to fresh to strong along the north coast of Hispaniola. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in open waters. Surface ridge extends from near Bermuda to central Florida. An upper level low is centered north of Turks and Caicos near 23N71W. Associated divergent flow aloft is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over the northern Bahamas. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure extending from Bermuda to central Florida will lift north of the area by early next week. This will support moderate to fresh E winds south of the ridge axis, with winds pulsing to fresh to strong along the north coast of Hispaniola mainly during the evenings into mid week. Elsewhere farther east, 1034 mb high pressure is centered over the central Atlantic near 34N43W. This is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds west of 35W with 5 to 7 ft seas. Over the eastern Atlantic east of 35W, fresh to strong NE winds are noted north of 15N, and gentle to moderate breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas farther south. $$ Christensen