000 AXNT20 KNHC 062318 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Jul 6 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Elsa is centered near 25.8N 83.0W at 06/2100 UTC or 130 nm SSW of Tampa Florida moving N at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Latest satellite imagery depicts numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 24N-29N between 77W-84W. Scattered moderate convection is present elsewhere from 19N-30N between 76W-85W. On the forecast track, Elsa will move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later today through tonight. Elsa is forecast to make landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast Wednesday morning and then move across the southeastern United States through Thursday. Storm surge of 2 to 4 ft are probable along the Panhandle and central W Florida coastline, 3 to 5 ft along the Big Bend area and 1 to 3 ft along the SW coast and Keys. Rainfall of 4 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts are anticipated along the W Florida coast, and 1 to 3 inches for the rest of Florida. Urban and river flooding, and even flash flooding is a major concern. Stay informed with your local weather forecast office and listen to possible instructions from you local emergency management office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, and the latest Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 28W from 17N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 07N between 25W-30W. Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 44W from 12N southward and moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers is noticed from 06N-10N between 41W-48W. A tropical wave extends across Venezuela along 65W and south of 10N, moving W at around 15 kt. Aided by upper-level divergent flow aloft, scattered moderate convection is south of 13N between 58W-67W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the Gambia coastline at 13N17W to 04N42W. ITCZ is from 03N45W to 04N51W. Aside from the convection described in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-14N and east of 22W, from 02N-09N between 30W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Elsa is impacting the E Gulf and western Florida. See the Special Features section above for details. A surface ridge lies across the N Gulf while an elongated upper- level low is near the Texas-Louisiana. Interaction between convergent surface SE winds related to the ridge and divergent winds associated with the low is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms across the NW Gulf north of 23N and west of 92W. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are near these showers and thunderstorms. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail elsewhere of the Gulf outside of Elsa. As for the forecast: Tropical Storm Elsa will strengthen to a hurricane near 27.5N 83.1W Wed morning, then move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 30.0N 82.8W Wed afternoon. Elsa will be at 32.3N 81.5W Thu morning, then remain inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 34.8N 78.9W Thu afternoon. Elsa will then move offshore and strengthen to a tropical storm near 37.4N 75.4W Fri morning, and reach 40.5N 71.0W Fri afternoon. Elsa will become extratropical as it moves near Newfoundland Sat afternoon. Marine conditions will be hazardous over much of the NE Gulf through Wed. Atlantic high pressure will then build across the area in the wake of Elsa through the next few days. Swells from Elsa are likely to spread throughout the basin during the period. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue across the north-central Gulf through Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent S to SE winds feeding toward Tropical Storm Elsa near the Florida Keys are producing scattered showers and thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean affecting Cuba and adjacent waters. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail over south-central Caribbean, mainly moderate trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted elsewhere. As for the forecast: Conditions will continue to improve near Cuba tonight as Elsa moves farther away from the area. Widespread fresh to strong trade winds will begin to increase in the south-central Caribbean beginning late Wed and continue through the rest of the week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras through the rest of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level low near 23N64W is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms S of Bermuda from 21N to 27N between 60W and 66W. A surface trough over central Florida, ahead of Tropical Storm Elsa is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Florida peninsula and western Atlantic mainly west of 76W. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends WSW from a 1029 mb high pressure center north of the area near 35N43W to N Florida. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are found N of 26N between 23W and the SE US coast. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are seen from 10N to 26N between the African coast and Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present elsewhere. As for the forecast W of 65W: Tropical Storm Elsa will move through the northeast Gulf of Mexico through Wed, then move across northern Florida Wed night, then along the Georgia coast Thu and finally north of the area by Thu night. Fresh southeast winds will develop off the northern and central Florida coasts Wed and Wed night as Elsa moves across portions of the SE U.S.. High pressure will then build westward across the area through Sat night. By Thu, winds will become gentle to moderate once again with tranquil conditions expected for the remainder of the period. $$ ERA