000 AXNT20 KNHC 061851 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Jul 6 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1815 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES...UPDATED Tropical Storm Elsa is centered near 25.4N 83.0W at 06/1800 UTC or 80 nm NW of Key West Florida moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Latest VIS satellite shows dry air intrusion along the western side of Elsa. Despite this, numerous moderate to strong convection is seen N and NE of the center over the SW Florida coast within 65 nm of 25N01W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present SE of the center over the Keys and western Cuba. On the forecast track, Elsa will move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later today through tonight. Elsa is forecast to become a hurricane before making landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast on Wednesday. Weakening is forecast to begin after Elsa moves inland by late Wednesday. Elsa will then move across the southeastern United States through Thursday. Storm surge of 2 to 4 ft are probable along the Panhandle and central W Florida coastline, 3 to 5 ft along the Big Band area and 1 to 3 ft along the SW coast and Keys. Rainfall of 4 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts are anticipated along the W Florida coast, and 1 to 3 inches for the rest of Florida. Urban and river flooding, and even flash flooding is a major concern. Stay informed with your local weather forecast office and listen to possible instructions from you local emergency management office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, and the latest Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 25W from 16N southward and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N to 08N between the African coast and 30W. Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 41W from 12N southward and moving W near 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 10N between 33W and 43W. A third modest tropical wave over eastern Venezuela and northern Brazil, and moving W near 15 kt. Aided by upper-level divergent flow near the northern part of the wave, scattered moderate to isolate strong convection is flaring up over northeastern Venezuela and adjacent waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the Gambia coastline at 13N16W to 04N41W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring near the coast of Gambia and Guinea-Bissau. An ITCZ runs from 04N43W to near the French Guiana-Brazil border. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident from 02N to 08N between 44W and the Guiana-Brazil coastlines. GULF OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Elsa is impacting the E Gulf and western Florida. See the Special Features section above for details. A surface ridge lies across the N Gulf while an elongated upper- level low is near the Texas-Louisiana border at 32N93W. Interaction between convergent surface SE winds related to the ridge and divergent winds associated with the low is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms from the SW Texas coast across the NW Gulf to the Panhandle. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are near these showers and thunderstorms. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail elsewhere of the Gulf. As for the forecast: Tropical Storm Elsa is near 24.9N 82.8W 1007 mb at 11 AM EDT moving NNW at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Elsa will move to 26.6N 82.9W this evening, 28.9N 83.0W Wed morning, then inland to 31.3N 82.0W Wed evening. Elsa will remain inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 33.8N 80.0W Thu morning, then move offshore and strengthen to a tropical storm near 36.7N 76.4W Thu evening. Tropical Storm Elsa will reach 39.5N 72.5W Fri morning. Elsa will become extratropical as it moves near Nova Scotia early Sat. Marine conditions will be hazardous over much of the eastern Gulf through Wed. Atlantic high pressure will then build across the area in the wake of Elsa through the next few days. Swells from Elsa are likely to spread throughout the basin during the period. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue across the north-central Gulf through Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent S to SE winds feeding toward Tropical Storm Elsa near the Florida Keys are producing scattered showers and thunderstorms just S of western Cuba. Farther S, convergent trade winds are creating similar conditions over the SW corner of the basin. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail over central Caribbean basin, mainly moderate trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft are found elsewhere. As for the forecast: Tropical Storm Elsa has moved north of the area into the eastern Gulf of Mexico this morning. Conditions will continue to improve near Cuba today as Elsa moves farther away from the area. Widespread fresh to strong trade winds will begin to increase in the south-central Caribbean beginning late Wed and continue through the rest of the week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras tonight through the rest of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level low near 23N64W is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms S of Bermuda from 21N to 27N between 60W and 66W. A surface trough over central Florida, ahead of Tropical Storm Elsa is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms over central and SE Florida, and the N Bahamas. moving to the west is identified to be near 23N64W. A stationary front stretching ENE from the Georgia-S Carolina border to the NW Atlantic is generating clouds and scattered showers N of 29N between 65W and the Georgia-S Carolina coast. Otherwise, a ridge extends WSW from a 1031 mb high pressure center north of the area near 34N43W to N Florida. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are found N of 26N between 23W and the SE US coast. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are seen from 10N to 26N between the African coast and Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present elsewhere. As for the forecast W of 65W: Tropical Storm Elsa will move through the northeast Gulf of Mexico today and Wed, then move across northern Florida Wed night, then along the Georgia coast Thu and finally north of the area by Thu night. Fresh southeast winds will develop off the northern and central Florida coasts Wed and Wed night as Elsa moves inland the northern Gulf coast. High pressure will then build westward across the area through Sat night. By Thu, winds will become gentle to moderate once again with tranquil conditions expected for the remainder of the period. $$ ERA