000 AXNT20 KNHC 061155 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Jul 6 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Elsa is centered near 24.5N 82.6W at 06/1200 UTC or about 50 nm west of Key West, Florida moving NNW or 340 DEG at 10 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is 50 knots with gusts to 60 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows a very large and persistent cluster of numerous moderate to strong convection southeast and south of Elsa covering the area from 20N to 24N between 80W-83W. Several rain bands consisting of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are noted from 24N to 25N between 80W-83W. This activity covers the Florida Keys and portions of South Florida. Other similar activity is as far north as Lake Okeechobee and surrounding areas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along and offshore South and central Florida extending eastward for about 60 nm. The hazards affecting land will be: wind, storm surge, rainfall, tornadoes, flooding, and surf. With regards to rainfall, Elsa is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches with localized maximum totals up to 8 inches across the Florida Keys and over the southwest and western portions of the Florida peninsula and 2 to 4 inches across the rest of Florida with localized maximum totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Elsa is expected to bring 3 to 5 inches with possible isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches across portions of southeastern Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina and 1 to 3 inches across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern Virginia with isolated totals of up to 5 inches Wed night through Thu night, which might lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML and the latest Elsa NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 23W/24W from 01N to 17N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 240 nm east of the wave from 04N to 06N and within 300 nm west of the wave from 04N to 05N. Another far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W south of 14N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 300 nm west of the wave from 02N to 05N and west of the wave to 40W from 07N to 09N. A central Atlantic low-amplitude tropical wave has its axis along 62W south of 13N, moving westward at about 15 kt. This wave lies to the southeast of an upper-level trough. Divergence present aloft to the southeast of the trough is helping to develop and sustain clusters of scattered moderate to strong convection within 180 nm east of the wave from 09N-10N and within 60 nm west of the wave from 09N to 11N. This activity is impacting Trinidad and Tobago. The previously mentioned tropical wave that was along 89W is now being described in the eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa at 12N17W and continues to 08N28W and to 07N36W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 04N43W and the coast of Brazil near 04N51W. Aside from convection described above with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 40W and 42W, within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 40W-45W, north of the ITCZ within 60 nm of line from 06N45W to 06N49W and within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough between 15W-18W. GULF OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Elsa is near the Florida keys. See the Special Features section above for details. An upper-level trough extends from an upper-level low located over eastern Louisiana southeastward to near 24N89W. The trough is providing enough atmospheric instability to support isolated showers and thunderstorms, and at times scattered showers and thunderstorms, over some sections of the NW and N-central Gulf waters. This activity should continue into Wed. Possible isolated showers and thunderstorms are also over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a rather weak pressure pattern is over the area. An overnight ASCAT pass depicted generally gentle to moderate southeast winds over the western half of the Gulf. As for the forecast: Tropical Storm Elsa is near 24.1N 82.4W 1007 mb at 5 AM EDT moving NNW at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Elsa will move to near 25.7N 82.9W this afternoon, to near 28.0N 83.1W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt, then track north-northeast and weaken to a tropical depression inland near 30.4N 82.5W Wed afternoon. Marine conditions will continue to deteriorate over most of the eastern Gulf through Wed. Atlantic high pressure will then build across the area in the wake of Elsa through the next few days. Swells from Elsa are likely to spread throughout the basin during the period. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue across the north-central Gulf through Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Convective activity associated to Tropical Storm Elsa consists of numerous moderate to strong convection from western Cuba between 80W-83W extending southward to near 19N. This activity thins out as it continues southward to near 18N84W. Scattered moderate to strong convection that attendant to the tropical wave along 62W is beginning to move into the far southeastern Caribbean this morning. Expect for this activity spread westward into the northeast section of Venezuela today. Some of this activity might be attendant by gusty winds. As for the forecast: Tropical Storm Elsa near 24.1N 82.4W 1007 mb at 5 AM EDT moving NW at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Elsa will move north over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through this afternoon allowing for fresh to strong southerly winds just south of western Cuba to diminish later this morning. Otherwise, widespread fresh to strong trade winds will begin to increase in the south-central Caribbean beginning late Wed and continue through the rest of the week. There is some possibility for these trades to reach gale force speeds near the coast of Colombia Thu night into Fri and again Fri night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras tonight through the rest of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A small upper-level low moving to the west is identified to be near 23N64W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 60 nm of the low. A stationary front is analyzed just north of the area west of 75W to inland southeastern Georgia. Otherwise, a ridge extends from a 1031 mb high pressure center north of the area near 35N44W westward to near 80W. High pressure covers the area north of 20N and east of 80W. Fresh to strong northeast winds are downwind of the Canary Islands to near 26N and also from 28N to 31N between 10W-13W. An altimeter data pass revealed wave heights of 6-8 ft from 13N to 25N between 26W-35W. As for the forecast: High pressure over the area will shift eastward through Wed as Tropical Storm Elsa tracks northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Fresh southeast winds will develop off the northern and central Florida coasts Wed and Wed night as Elsa moves inland the northern Gulf coast. High pressure will then build westward across the area through Sat night. By Thu, winds will become gentle to moderate once again with tranquil conditions expected for the remainder of the period. $$ Aguirre