000 AXNT20 KNHC 051837 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Jul 5 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm ELSA, at 11/1500 UTC, is near 21.5N 81.2W or about 35 nm ESE of Cayo Largo, Cuba. ELSA is moving toward the NW, or 310 degrees at 12 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is 55 knots with gusts to 65 kt. Tropical Storm Elsa is expected to make landfall at western Cuba later this afternoon, then exit into the Gulf of Mexico toward the Keys on Tuesday morning. A gradual turn toward the north is anticipated on Tuesday, bringing Elsa just off the western Florida coast before approaching the Big Band area on Wednesday. Numerous strong convection is flaring up near the center near southwestern Cuba within 90 miles of 21N81W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection associated with a feeder band is seen farther SE and NE, near Jamaica and central Cuba within 60 miles on either side of a line from 17N81W to 21N78W to 25N80W. Just over 3.5 inches of rainfall have fallen upon Kingston, Jamaica yesterday. Rainfall of 4 to 6 inches are possible along the SW coast of Florida. while mainly 2 to 4 inches are probable across the Panhandle, N Florida and the Keys. Heavy rain might cause urban and river flooding, and even flash flooding in these areas. Stay up to date with the latest information from your local weather forecast office. On the latest information on Tropical Storm Elsa, Please read the latest advisories/bulletins at www.nhc.noaa.gov/#ELSA ...TROPICAL WAVES... A newly analyzed Atlantic tropical wave is between the African coast and Cape Verde Islands near 19W from 17N southward, and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen from 01N to 06N between the African coast and 26W. Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W from 15N southward and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 31W and 44W. A third Atlantic tropical wave is near 57W from 10N southward into Guyana and Suriname, and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found between 07N and 10N from 50W to coast of Guyana. A tropical wave previously located over Honduras and Nicaragua has moved into Guatemala and the E Pacific Ocean. Refer to the Tropical Weather Discussion on the E Pacific for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis the African coast near the Senegal- Mauritania at 16N16W to near 07N26W. The ITCZ continues from 07N26W to 07N33W, then W of a tropical wave from 04N36W to near the French Guiana-Brazil border at 03N50W. Aside from convection described in the Tropical Wave section above, there is no other significant convection. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for convection over the Florida Strait associated with Tropical Storm Elsa. An upper-level trough is over the N Gulf near 30N92W, while a surface ridge is over the central Gulf near 25N89W. Convergent winds near the ridge axis are coupling with the trough to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across the N and central W Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are present across most of the basin, except locally fresh winds and seas up to 5 ft near thunderstorms. As for the forecast: Tropical Storm Elsa near 21.5N 81.2W 1006 mb at 11 AM EDT moving NW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Elsa will move to 23.2N 82.2W this evening, 25.0N 83.2W Tue morning, 27.0N 83.6W Tue evening, 29.3N 83.4W Wed morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 31.5N 82.2W Wed evening. Expect for marine conditions to begin to deteriorate over most of the far eastern Gulf waters beginning today continuing through mid-week. Elsewhere in the Gulf, gentle to moderate southerly winds will prevail through early in the week. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue across the north- central Gulf through Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Tropical Storm Elsa is about to make landfall over central Cuba. Please see the Special Features section above for details. Convergent SE winds feeding toward Elsa are triggering scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the SW Caribbean. Fresh to near-gale winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are present just E of Elsa, over the waters between western Cuba and Jamaica. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail across the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are found elsewhere. As for the forecast: Tropical Storm Elsa near 21.5N 81.2W 1006 mb at 11 AM EDT moving NW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Elsa will move across central and western Cuba today and emerge over the Straits of Florida tonight into early Tue. Winds are expected to diminish by tonight near Cuba as Elsa will continue to move farther away from the area. Otherwise, fresh to strong trade winds will increase in the south- central Caribbean by Tue and continue through the rest of the week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras Tue night through the rest of the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from southern Georgia to the mid- Atlantic, while an upper-level trough is over the mid-Atlantic US coast. Convergent low-level SE to S winds, S of the front are enhanced by divergent winds related to the upper trough; resulting in scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from the northern Bahamas to well E of the Florida coast near 70W. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are evident in this area. A large dome of 1030 mb high pressure over the Mid Atlantic continues to provide light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft N of 25N between 30W and 70W. Moderate to locally fresh trades and seas of 5 to 8 ft are present from 13N to 25N between the African coast and Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere. As for the forecast W of 65W: Atlantic high pressure will shift slightly eastward through Mon in response to a stationary front lingering N of the forecast waters. Fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the front and N of 28N will quickly diminish by this afternoon. The center of Elsa will emerge off the northeast Florida coast by Wed, bringing gusty winds and thunderstorms right off the Florida coast. $$ Chan