000 AXNT20 KNHC 021804 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Jul 2 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE ELSA: As of 1800 UTC, Elsa is centered near 13.7N 62.5W, or 83 nm WNW of St. Vincent, moving WNW at 25 kt. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with higher gusts. Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Peak seas are currently 24 ft. 12 ft seas radii are 240 nm in the NE quadrant, 120 nm in the SE quadrant, 30 nm in the SW quadrant, and 90 nm in the NW quadrant. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is within 150 nm of the center of Elsa. On the forecast track, Elsa will move away from the Windward Islands during the next several hours, move across the eastern Caribbean Sea later today and tonight, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola late Saturday or Saturday night. By Sunday, Elsa is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba, and move near portions of central and western Cuba Sunday night and early Monday. Heavy rainfall from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands today. Outer rain bands will impact Puerto Rico late today into Saturday, and southern Hispaniola and Jamaica Saturday into Sunday. Flooding and mudslides are possible. Please consult products from your local meteorological service. Please also read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A new tropical wave has exited the coast of Africa, and is currently analyzed along 19W from 05N to 17N. This tropical is moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection, also associated with the Monsoon Trough, is from 03N to 12N east of 30W. A low amplitude Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W from 01N to 10N, moving west at 10-15 kts. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 06N between 37W and 40W. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 73W, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 15N to 18N between 71W and 76W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N16W to 09N20W to 07N31W. Convection is described in the tropical waves section. No segments of the ITCZ are analyzed at this time, as the low level flow east of 40W remains disrupted by Hurricane Elsa. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 1500 UTC, a surface trough is located in the SW Gulf from 23N97W to 19N93W, with a 1012 mb low centered at 21N95W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 19N to 24N between 91W and 96W. The latest scatterometer data shows strong S winds with this area of convection. Elsewhere, surface ridging supports gentle to moderate S winds throughout the Gulf. Seas are 3-5 ft. Some scattered showers are noted in the far NE Gulf. For the forecast, a high pressure ridge extending westward along 25N from the Atlantic to the southeastern Gulf will shift east- southeast through the weekend. Hurricane Elsa is forecast to reach near southeastern Cuba early Sun, then track northwestward to the Straits of Florida late Mon and across the far eastern Gulf through Tue, possibly reaching the area near the Florida Big Bend late Tue night or early on Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Hurricane Elsa. Scattered moderate convection from 12N to 14N between 64W and 70W precedes Hurricane Elsa in the eastern Caribbean. East of 70W, fresh NE winds were indicated in the latest scatterometer data. Moderate trades continue from 70W west to 77W, where wind speeds diminish to gentle through the W Caribbean. Seas are 9-14 ft near the Windward and Leeward Islands, 5-7 ft between 64W and 72W, and 2-5 ft west of 72W. For the forecast, Hurricane Elsa will move to near 4.6N 64.9W this evening with maximum sustained winds 70 kt and gusts to 85 kt and maintain intensity as it moves to near 16.3N 69.8W early Sat, to near 17.8N 73.6W Sat evening, then begin to weaken as it nears 19.3N 76.4W early Sun with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt. Elsa is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm as it moves across eastern Cuba Sun and Sun night, then inland central Cuba and across the Straits of Florida through late Mon and over the eastern Gulf through late Tue. Meanwhile, a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean south of Haiti will move across the rest of the central Caribbean through tonight and across the western Caribbean through Sun night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany this wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on Hurricane Elsa. A middle to upper level trough just E of Florida continues to support scattered scattered moderate convection from 24N to 31N between 71W and 79W, across the northern Bahamas and the offshore waters to the north. Moderate to locally strong S winds are noted with this area of convection. Fresh E winds are noted from Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands north to 21N between 57W and 68W. The strong 1027 mb subtropical high centered at 30N54W is supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. Atlantic high pressure will begin to shift southeast today in response to a cold front that will approach the far northwest forecast waters. The front will become stationary just north of the area early next week. Tropical Storm Elsa is well southeast of the area over the tropical Atlantic waters. Elsa is forecast to move into the eastern Caribbean Sea today and tonight, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola Sat, then to near southeastern Cuba early Sun and to over western Cuba early Mon and to possibly the far southeastern Gulf of Mexico during Mon and Mon night and near the Florida Big Bend early on Wed. $$ Mahoney