000 AXNT20 KNHC 021240 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Jul 2 2021 UPDATED WITH THE 1230 UTC SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR HURRICANE ELSA Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE ELSA: Recent surface observations from Barbados indicate that Elsa's maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 kt, and the tropical cyclone is now a hurricane. A Special Advisory was issued at 1230 UTC. Elsa is centered near 13.1N60.1W or 35 nm W of Barbados moving WNW at 24 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is within 180 nm of the center of Elsa. On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands this morning, move across the eastern Caribbean Sea late today and tonight, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. By Sunday, Elsa is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba. Heavy rainfall from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands today, including Barbados. Outer rain bands will impact Puerto Rico late today into Saturday, and southern Hispaniola and Jamaica Saturday into Sunday. Flooding and mudslides are possible. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is from 00N to 10N along 35W, moving W from 10-15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 10N between 30W and 39W. A tropical wave is S of 20N along 70W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 14N to 21N between 67W and 79W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 12N16W to 07N22W to 07N31W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 10N between 02W and 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface ridge extends into the eastern Gulf and supports light to gentle variable wind E of 90W and gentle to moderate return flow W of 90W. Seas are in the 1-3 ft basin-wide. Otherwise, heavy showers and tstms are in the SW basin associated with a tropical wave that is moving across Belize and Guatemala. Tropical Storm Elsa over the tropical Atlantic is forecast to reach near southeastern Cuba early Sun, to over western Cuba early Mon and to possibly the far southeastern Gulf of Mexico during Mon and Mon night. Then Elsa is forecast to reach the area near the Florida Big Bend late Tue night or early on Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Hurricane Elsa. A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean near 70W will move across the central Caribbean through Sat. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the wave with possibly reducing visibility. Tropical Storm Elsa near 12.7N 58.6W 1001 mb at 5 AM EDT moving WNW at 24 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Elsa will move to 13.8N 62.4W this afternoon, 15.4N 67.4W Sat morning, 17.1N 71.7W Sat afternoon, 18.7N 75.2W Sun morning, 20.2N 77.8W Sun afternoon, and 21.7N 79.7W Mon morning. Elsa will change little in intensity as it moves near 25.2N 82.2W early Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on Hurricane Elsa. A middle to upper level trough just E of Florida continue to support scattered showers and isolated tstms across the northern Bahamas and the offshore waters to the north. The remainder basin is under the influence of the Azores high, which is supporting fair weather. Atlantic high pressure will begin to shift southeast today in response to a cold front that will approach the far northwest forecast waters. The front will become stationary just north of the area early next week. Tropical Storm Elsa is well southeast of the area over the tropical Atlantic waters. Elsa is forecast to move into the eastern Caribbean Sea today and tonight, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola Sat, then to near southeastern Cuba early Sun and to over western Cuba early Mon and to possibly the far southeastern Gulf of Mexico during Mon and Mon night and near the Florida Big Bend early on Wed. $$ Ramos/Mahoney