000 AXNT20 KNHC 012350 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Jul 2 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Elsa is centered near 11.2N 53.8W at 01/2100 UTC or 360 nm ESE of Barbados moving WNW at 25 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the center in the northeast quadrant. Seas are 12 ft or greater within 180 nm of the center in the northeast quadrant, with maximum seas estimated to be near 15 ft. Elsa is forecast to continue to move to the WNW across the Windward Islands and enter the eastern Caribbean Fri, before moving toward Hispaniola Sat, and eastern Cuba Sun. Heavy rainfall, flash flooding and mudslides are possible as Elsa moves near these areas. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 33W south of 10N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 27N and 37W. The axis of a a tropical wave is near 67W south of 20N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the 12N to 17N between 64W and 70W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 84W south of 19N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is associated with this tropical wave over the Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 09N25W. The ITCZ then continues from 09N25W to 06N30W. A second segment of the ITCZ begins at 02N36W to 05N43W. Aside from the convection noted in the tropical waves section, an area of scattered moderate convection is noted near the monsoon trough from 04N to 11N east of 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from south of Louisiana to a 1012 mb surface low pressure area in the far southwest Gulf of Mexico near 19N94W. Scattered showers are noted within 60 nm of the trough south of 20W off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. High pressure prevails across the rest of the Gulf, with light to gentle E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas. For the forecast, the trough will shift west and dissipate, leaving a ridge to dominate the Gulf waters over the next several days producing mainly moderate E to SE winds. Fresh east to southeast winds are expected at night near the western Yucatan Peninsula through Fri due to local effects induced by a thermal trough. Another trough will persist over the SW Gulf over the next several days producing showers and thunderstorms. Winds and seas may be higher near thunderstorms. Looking ahead, Tropical Storm Elsa currently east of Barbados in the tropical Atlantic is expected move across Cuba Sun and Sun night, and approach the Straits of Florida and far southeastern Gulf Mon and Mon night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see Special Features Section above for details on Tropical Storm Elsa, which is moving west toward the Windward Islands. A 15 UTC scatterometer pass indicated fresh to strong NE winds reaching from the coast of the Dominican Republic to the north central Caribbean, ahead of the approaching tropical wave south of Puerto Rico. Fresh to strong E winds are likely ongoing in this area with seas approaching 8 ft. Observations from Roatan along with the same scatterometer pass confirmed fresh trade winds across the Gulf of Honduras. Generally moderate easterly winds are noted elsewhere with 5 to 7 ft seas, except for 3 to 5 ft seas in the northwest Caribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over the eastern Caribbean following the tropical wave. For the forecast, the tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean south of Puerto Rico will move quickly into the central Caribbean tonight through Sat. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the wave with possibly reducing visibility. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Elsa is near 11.2N 53.8W 1005 mb at 5 PM EDT moving WNW at 25 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Elsa will move to near 12.1N 57.5W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts to 55 kt, to near 13.5N 62.4W Fri afternoon with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt and maintain intensity as it reaches near 15.1N 67.3W late Fri night, to near 16.7N 71.6W early Sat afternoon, to near 18.3N 75.0W late Sat night, to near 19.8N 77.9W early Sun afternoon and to over western Cuba early Mon afternoon and to possibly the far southeastern Gulf during Mon and Mon night and far eastern Gulf Tue and Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features Section above for details on Tropical Storm Elsa, which is moving west toward the Windward Islands. A few showers are active across the Bahamas ahead of a small upper trough moving across Florida. The main influence on the surface conditions is a 1026 mb high pressure area centered near 29N54W, with a ridge extending toward northeast Florida. This is supporting fresh trade winds south of 20N west of 65W, and generally moderate SE winds elsewhere west of 65W, with 4 to 6 ft seas in open waters. Light to gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted near the center of the high pressure. Elsewhere across the north Atlantic south of 32N but outside the area of Elsa, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 8 ft seas persist. For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, Atlantic high pressure will begin to shift southeast Fri in response to as a cold front approaches the far northwest forecast waters. The front will become stationary just north of the area early next week. Tropical Storm Elsa is well southeast of the area over the tropical Atlantic waters. Elsa is forecast to move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Fri and Fri night, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola Sat, then to near southeastern Cuba early Sun and to over western Cuba early Mon afternoon and to possibly the far southeastern Gulf during Mon and Mon night and the far eastern Gulf Tue and Tue night. $$ Christensen