568 AXNT20 KNHC 291753 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Jun 29 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is repositioned to be along 33W from 15N southward and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from the Equator to 11N between 27W and 36W. Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 49W from 17N southward. It is roughly 650 miles E of the Windward Islands and moving W near 20 kt. A broad 1009 mb low pressure system is embedded within this wave near 12N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 16N between 43W and 53W. Some slow development of this disturbance is possible later this week and this weekend while the system moves westward to west-northwestward near 15 kt, likely reaching the Lesser Antilles by Wednesday night. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov, for more information. A Caribbean tropical wave is near 67W from just south of Puerto Rico southward, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is occurring with this wave. Another Caribbean tropical wave is near 88W from south of Cuba at 18N southward and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Aided by divergent flow related to an upper-level high just off the coast of Honduras at 15N82W, scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring over the western Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W to 08N29W to near 11N46W. Scattered moderate convection is found 06N to 11N between 37W and 42W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level trough runs WSW from a low pressure centered near the Florida Panhandle across the northern Gulf to another low over northern Mexico. Divergent flow south of these features is coupling with convergent SE winds to trigger numerous showers and thunderstorms across the western Gulf from 20N to 25N between 97W and the Mexican coast. Scattered moderate convection is present over the northeastern Gulf from 25N to 29N between 83W and 89W. Moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail over the western basin, while gentle to moderate SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft dominate the eastern Gulf. For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters over the next several days producing mainly moderate E to SE winds. Fresh E to SE fresh winds are expected at night near the western Yucatan Peninsula through Fri due to local effects induced by a thermal trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Wave Section above for more detail information on convection. A dry trade-wind pattern persists across the central and eastern Caribbean basin. Moderate to locally fresh trades and seas of 6 to 9 ft prevail across the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft are seen for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, building high pressure N of the Caribbean Sea combined with the Colombian low will bring increasing winds and seas across the basin, but particularly across the south-central Caribbean. Some slow development of the tropical wave approximately 650 nm east of the Lesser Antilles is possible later this week and this weekend while the system moves westward to west- northwestward at 15 to 20 kt, likely reaching the Lesser Antilles by Wednesday night, and Puerto Rico on Thu. Increasing winds and seas will be associated with the wave passage. Another tropical wave is forecast to approach the Lesser Antilles on Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weakening stationary front is noted from 31N37W west- southwestward to 28N54W, then turns northwestward to 29N58W. Scattered clouds and showers are evident up to 150 nm along either sides of this front. An upper-level trough extends W from a low SE of Bermuda near 27N59W to near N Florida. Diffluent flow S of these features is triggering scattered moderate convection E of the Bahamas from 21N to 26N between 63W to 71W. Elsewhere across the basin, weather N of 23N is being dominated by high pressures centered NE of the Bahamas and to the N of the Canary Islands. This is leading to mainly gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft across this area. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft exist between 23N and 10N from the Bahamas eastward to the west coast of Africa. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are found elsewhere. For the forecast W of 65W, the Atlantic ridge will build westward and dominate the forecast waters the remainder of the week. Fresh to strong winds winds are expected just N of Hispaniola Thu night through Sat night due to the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and a couple of tropical wave passages over the Caribbean Sea. $$ EC/Chan