000 AXNT20 KNHC 261813 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Jun 26 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Corrected Atlantic Ocean section Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is just W of the Cabo Verde Islands along 26W. A surface low pressure center of 1012 mb is embedded within this wave near 09N26W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 08N to 14N between 23W to 31W. Although shower and thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized, some slow development will be possible over the next several days while the disturbance moves generally westward at about 15 kt. This tropical wave has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hrs. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information. A second Atlantic tropical wave is near 43W from 17N southward and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave. A third Atlantic tropical wave is along 52W from 18N southward and moving W near 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present north of Guyana from 07N to 09N between 54W and 59W. A Caribbean tropical wave is near 66W/67W from near Puerto Rico southward and moving W near 5 kt. The wave is enhancing convection over Puerto Rico and regional waters, as well as over the NE Caribbean, including the Leeward Islands. The northern USVI already received rainfall amounts between 1-3 inches this morning, with St Thomas having most of the rain. A second Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W from western Cuba southward and moving W near 5 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted near western Cuba from 20N to 22N between 82W and 87W, including the Yucatan Channel. Similar convective activity is also found across the SW Caribbean from 10N to 12N between 79W and 83W. This convection is also affecting the Caribbean plains of Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea- Bissau near 12N17W and a low pressure system at 09N27W to 06N42W. A segment of the ITCZ is seen from 05N45W to 05N52W. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is flaring up over the African coast from 07N to 16N between 11W to 21W. Scattered moderate convection is present farther W from 05N to 07N between 33W and 37W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough located over the south central Gulf near 23N91W is coupling with an upper-level low south of New Orleans at 28N89W to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the SE Gulf from 22N to 26N between 82W and 89W. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail over the central and western edge of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft are found elsewhere. For the forecast, a deep layer trough extending from the NE through central Gulf will move west through the NW Gulf through the weekend, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms as well as fresh SE winds along with it. Gentle to moderate SE winds will persist from early to mid week between a trough over the far southeast Gulf and high pressure over the western Atlantic. CARIBBEAN SEA... A pair of tropical waves are moving westward across the Caribbean Sea. Refer to the Tropical Wave section for more details. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted over the south-central Caribbean basin from 09N to 13N between 73W and 78W. Due to a relatively weak pressure gradient, gentle to moderate trades are occurring over most of the basin, except moderate to locally fresh trades just north of Colombian coast and near the Windward Islands. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are present in these areas. Seas at 2 to 3 ft are found elsewhere. For the forecast, a tropical wave currently over the eastern Caribbean will move westward across the basin through Mon. This pattern will support moderate to fresh trade winds over the south central Caribbean and off Honduras into early next week, with gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere. Winds will increase and seas will build slightly in most areas by the middle of next week as high pressure north of the basin extends into the basin in the wake of the tropical wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extending from 30N63W to 25N65W is coupling with an upper-level low at 32N67W to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms south of Bermuda from 24N to 31N between 59W and 69W. Although surface pressures are currently high across the area, some additional slow development could occur while the system moves westward at about 10 kt over the next few days. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are found W of the trough axis north of 28N between 65W and 70W. Another upper-level low near 26N67W is inducing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near and north of the Leeward Islands from 18N to 23N between 69W and 64W. A surface trough just off the northern Florida coast from 29N80W to beyond 31N81W is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the eastern half of Florida from West Palm Beach northward. Under the influence of a 1023 mb high pressure located near 28N38W, light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are evident across the Atlantic basin north of 23N between 31W and 58W. Moderate to locally fresh trades and seas of 4 to 7 ft are present between 10N and 23N from the African coast westward to the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft exist across the remainder of the basin. For the forecast W of 65W, a trough along 65W will move across the region through Tue, followed by weak high pressure through the middle of next week. $$ GR/PC