469 AXNT20 KNHC 241024 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Jun 24 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave axis is analyzed along 30W and from 17N southward, moving W from 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis mainly south of 06N. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave axis is analyzed along 46W from 11N southward, moving W 10 kt. Scattered showers prevail in the wave's environment between 40W-50W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave axis is analyzed along 57W from 15N southward, moving W from 5 to 10 kt. A 1013 mb low pressure center is along the wave's axis near 12N. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted in the vicinity of the wave and low from 08N-14N between 50W-58W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave axis is analyzed along 74W from 19N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Fresh winds are within 135 nm to the south of Hispaniola, and within 150 nm to the east of the tropical wave. Fresh winds also are within 60 nm to the north of Hispaniola between 71W and the northern part of the Windward Passage. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet within 150 nm on either side of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to 07N27W to 05N35W. The ITCZ extends from 05N35W to 03N43W. Aside from the convection described in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate convection prevails from 00N-10N and east of 26W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is along 31N/32N between 80W in the Atlantic Ocean, and northern Louisiana. Scattered moderate convection prevails across the eastern Gulf waters east of 87W. A surface ridge passes through central Florida near 28N82W, toward the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, toward the coast of Mexico near 21N98W. The sea heights range from 3 to 4 ft from 90W westward, and from 2 to 3 ft from 90W eastward. High pressure will prevail across the northern waters. A diurnally-induced trough will develop in the Yucatan Peninsula each evening. This will result in a pulsing of fresh E to SE winds each night NW of the Yucatan Peninsula through Thursday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the central Caribbean and the one approaching the Leeward Islands. Fresh winds are within 135 nm to the south of Hispaniola, and within 150 nm to the east of the tropical wave. Fresh winds also are within 60 nm to the north of Hispaniola between 71W and the northern part of the Windward Passage. The sea heights range from 4 to 6 ft within 350 nm to 450 nm on either side of the tropical wave. The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N between 74W in Colombia, and beyond NW Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered showers prevail along the trough. A ridge of high pressure to the north of the area, combined with the low pressure that is in Colombia, will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea, and in the Gulf of Honduras, through this morning. The ridge will shift northward, loosening the pressure gradient, with a modest decrease in the wind speeds in these areas. A tropical wave, that is moving across the offshore tropical Atlantic Ocean waters, will interact with an upper level trough, which will enhance convection with locally higher winds and seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Scattered showers are noted over the west Atlantic west of 75W. To the east, a surface trough is analyzed from 34N49W to 24N49W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is at about 120 nm to the west of the surface trough. Scattered showers are noted in this area. A surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the area, anchored by a 1025 mb high pressure center that is just to the north of Bermuda to 30N74W to central Florida near 28N82W. Fresh-to-strong N and NE winds are within 250 nm of the coast of Africa from the northern sections of Senegal to 25N off the coast of the Western Sahara. The sea heights have been ranging from 5 feet to 7 feet in this area. Scattered showers will prevail across the western Atlantic mainly west of 75W. This activity will continue through the next few days, as a frontal boundary currently north of the area drifts east. A surface trough, the result of an interaction of a tropical wave and upper level trough, will move north of the Lesser Antilles Friday night. The trough will continue to move westward across the southern waters north of Puerto Rico Sat, and north of Hispaniola Sun. $$ ERA