000 AXNT20 KNHC 202154 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Jun 21 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Claudette is centered near 34.2N 82.5W at 20/2100 UTC or 70 nm W of Columbia South Carolina moving ENE at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. On the forecast track, the system should continue to move across portions of the southeastern U.S. through tonight, move over the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday, and pass near or just south of Nova Scotia on Tuesday. Some re- strengthening is expected tonight, and Claudette is forecast to become a tropical storm again late tonight or early Monday over eastern North Carolina. Further strengthening is possible over the western Atlantic Ocean through early Tuesday. Claudette is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone Tue afternoon or Tue night. See the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A new tropical wave is located from 05N to 13N with an axis along 31W, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave. A tropical wave extends from 04N to 14N with axis near 43W, moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 11N between 40W-46W. A tropical wave extends from 08N to 19N with axis near 69W, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring across Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and adjacent Caribbean waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of West Africa near 10N15W to 06N20W to 05N31W. The ITCZ continues from 05N31W to 08N40W then continues west of a tropical wave near 08N44W to 08N59W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 01N to 10N E of 24W. GULF OF MEXICO... Although Tropical Depression Claudette is centered over South Carolina and moving NE away from the area, outer rainbands associated with it continue to support numerous moderate to strong convection along the northern Gulf coast and within 120 nm of shore. Some strong winds are likely with this activity as well as restrictions in visibility. Moderate to locally fresh return flow is elsewhere across the basin with seas with seas ranging between 3 to 5 ft. A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters over the next several days. Fresh to locally strong southerly return flow will set up across the western Gulf later this evening and continue through Mon. Pulsing fresh E to SE winds are expected each night into the early morning hours to the NW of the Yucatan peninsula through Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave along 69W is generating a few thunderstorms over and near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The pressure gradient between the Azores high and lower pressure associated with the tropical wave is supporting moderate to fresh winds across the eastern half of the basin, with fresh to strong winds occurring over the south-central waters. Seas range between 5 and 7 ft. Otherwise, gentle to moderate E to SE winds are over the NW Caribbean, except in the Gulf of Honduras where winds pulse to fresh to strong. The Atlantic high pressure will combine with the Colombian low to support fresh to strong trades over the south- central Caribbean through Tue. Pulsing fresh to strong E to SE winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Wed night. A tropical over the eastern Caribbean along 68W will move across the central Caribbean on Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... With Tropical Depression Claudette move ENE through South Carolina, the system will generally remain north of the area. However, moderate rainbands are impact areas N of 28N and W of 75W. The Azores high extends a ridge axis into the area W of 65W and supports mainly moderate to fresh return flow. Light to gentle variable winds are across the central Atlantic while a stronger pressure gradient due to lower pressure over northern Africa supports moderate to fresh NE winds over the E Atlantic E of 35W. For the forecast west of 65W, a ridge will dominate the area during the next several days. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are expected to develop over waters N of 30N W of 70W tonight and Mon due to the pressure gradient between Claudette, forecast to move into the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday, and the Atlantic high pressure. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected to pulse at night over Hispaniola adjacent waters, including approaches to the Windward Passage, through Fri night. $$ KONARIK