000 AXNT20 KNHC 192203 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Jun 20 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently downgraded Tropical Depression Claudette is centered near 32.2N 87.9W at 19/2100 UTC or 80 nm W of Montgomery Alabama moving NE at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection extends outward up to 330 nm in the southeast semicircle. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding across portions of the Florida Panhandle, eastern Alabama, and Georgia through tonight, and into the Carolinas on Sunday. Considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are expected across these areas. See the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. East Atlantic Gale Warning: Northerly gales are occurring in a small area off the coast of Agadir Morocco from 30N-31N between 09.5W and 11W. According to the forecast from Meteo France, the gales will continue through 20/0000 UTC tonight. Please see the latest High Seas Warning and High Seas Forecast products from Meteo France at weather.gmdss.org/II.html for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 40W from 15N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 35W-43W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 61W S of 21N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of the wave axis from 11N to 18N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 80W from 19N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is mainly confined to the SW Caribbean, south of 10N. The axis of tropical wave is near 86/87W from 19N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers are present in the vicinity of the wave axis in the Gulf of Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 08N23W. The ITCZ continues from 08N23W to 07N37W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from 05N42W to 03N48W. Aside from the convection described in the tropical waves section, an area of numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted south of the monsoon trough, off the coasts of Sierra Leone and Liberia from 02N to 09N east of 18W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 20W and 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Claudette. Elsewhere, a trough extends across the western Gulf from 27N82W to 25N97W. Light to gentle winds prevail west of the trough, with moderate to locally fresh winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-12 ft range N of 27N between 85W and 89W, and 3-6 ft elsewhere except the SW Gulf where seas are in the 2-3 ft range. For the forecast, Claudette is downgraded to a Tropical Depression at 5 PM EDT. It is moving NE at 14 kt over the northern Gulf states. An area of fresh to strong S to SW winds, with seas in the 8 to 12 ft range associated with an outer band of Claudette is affecting the NE Gulf waters, mainly N of 28N between 85W and 90W. These marine conditions will persist through tonight while gradually diminishing. High pressure is forecast to build in across the basin in the wake of Claudette late tonight into early next week. Fresh to locally strong southerly return flow will set up across the western Gulf on Sun, then continue through Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Isolated showers and tstorms are occurring near the tropical waves, described above in the tropical waves section. No other significant weather features or areas of precipitation are noted. Fresh to strong trades prevail over the central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range over the central Caribbean and 4-6 ft over most of the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will combine with the Colombian low to support fresh to strong trades over the south- central Caribbean through Mon. Pulsing fresh to strong E to SE winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Wed night. A tropical wave is moving from the central Caribbean into the western Caribbean supporting some shower and thunderstorm activity. A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean. This wave will move across the eastern Caribbean tonight and Sun increasing the likelihood of showers and isolated thunderstorms. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning near the coast of Morocco. A cold front extends from 31N58W to 29.5N65W. Otherwise, a ridge of high pressure, anchored by high pressure of 1027 mb near 30N44W, prevails along 26/27N. Light to gentle winds generally prevail north of 22N, with moderate to fresh winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-3 ft range west of 76W, and 3-6 ft elsewhere. Over the deep tropics S of 20N, seas are in the 6-8 ft range. For the forecast west of 65W, a ridge will dominate the area during the next several days. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected to pulse at night over Hispaniola adjacent waters, including approaches to the Windward Passage through Thu night. $$ AL