000 AXNT20 KNHC 160822 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Jun 16 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0750 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad low pressure area. Fresh to strong NW-N winds are noted within 60 nm of the coast of Veracruz where seas are 3 to 5 ft. This system will move little during the next day or so, and little if any development is expected during that time due to interaction with land. However, the broad disturbance should begin to move northward on Thu, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late Thu or on Fri when the low moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains could also begin to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Fri. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information. This area has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours, and a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 days. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the NWS National Hurricane Center at website: www.hurricanes.gov for more details on this area. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed near 30W from 17N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 30W and 37W. A tropical wave is analyzed near 52W from 19N southward, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N to 16N between 51W and 53W. A tropical wave is analyzed near 76W from 18N southward across western Colombia. No significant convection is noted over water, however scattered thunderstorms near the tropical wave axis are occurring over portions of western Colombia. A tropical wave is analyzed across southern Mexico near 94W southward into the eastern Pacific Ocean, moving W at around 15 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted across the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and Guatemala, with a band of scattered moderate convection from 12N to 18N between 82W and 88W including over eastern Honduras and Nicaragua. Frequent lightning is occurring in these areas of deep convection. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 12N16W to 11N18W. The ITCZ continues from 11N18W to 08N28W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from 06N32W to 01N40W to 02N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 07N between 07W and 24W, and from 10N to 13N between 53W and 58W. GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on a broad low pressure area over the Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a weak ridge of high pressure dominates the basin extending from near Fort Myers, Florida to the central Texas coast. A surface trough is analyzed just inland along the U.S. northern Gulf coast states. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from the Yucatan Channel to 26N between 82W and 90W. Additional deep convection is noted over southern Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula as described above in the Tropical Waves section. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds are occurring from 20N to 25N between 84W and 90W, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds noted elsewhere. Seas are mainly 3 ft or less, except 3 to 5 ft in the area of moderate to fresh winds. For the forecast, other than the broad area of low pressure, high pressure ridging should build across the basin along 27N late in the upcoming weekend into early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details. An overnight scatterometer pass showed a large area of fresh to strong SE winds in the NW Caribbean where seas are 4 to 7 ft. Deep convection is occurring near this area as well as described in the Tropical Waves section above. The scatterometer pass data also indicated fresh to strong winds in the S central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades were noted elsewhere, except light to gentle in the SW Caribbean south of 11N. Seas are mainly in the 4 to 7 ft range across the basin, except locally to 8 ft in the S central Caribbean, and 2 to 4 ft in the SW Caribbean. For the forecast, a ridge of high pressure north of the basin combined with lower pressure over Central America and Colombia will support pulsing fresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, except light to gentle south of 11N. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A pair of tropical waves are moving westward between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details. A ridge dominates the entire Atlantic forecast area anchored by the Bermuda-Azores High located north of the area near 35N39W at 1028 mb. The ridge extends to across Bermuda and to South Florida, continuing across the central Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong SW winds are occurring north of 28N between 68W and 81W where scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring, supported by a mid-level trough. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in this area of fresh to strong winds. Moderate to fresh trades dominate south of 22N, locally strong near 17N38W, with gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. Seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate the waters elsewhere west of 40W, with mainly 5 to 8 ft seas east of 40W. An exception is from 20N to 26N, just south of the Canary Islands, between the west coast of Africa and 30W where fresh to locally strong N-NE winds persists due to a locally tight pressure gradient. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in this area. For the forecast west of 65W, a ridge of high pressure across the area will prevail across 26N through mid-week before retreating eastward through the end of the week. Winds will be fresh to strong north of 28N through mid-week as a pair of cold fronts pass north of the area. $$ Lewitsky