000 AXNT20 KNHC 160604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Jun 16 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Bill, at 16/0300 UTC, is near 43.5N 57.0W. BILL is moving toward the NE, 35 degrees, 25 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots. BILL is about 290 nm/540 km to the east of Halifax in Nova Scotia, and about 250 nm/470 km to the SW of Cape Race in Newfoundland. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 240 nm to 420 nm from the center in the NE semicircle. Please, refer to the latest watches and warnings that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. Please, refer to the latest watches and warnings that are issued by the Ocean Prediction Center, at www.ocean.weather.gov, for marine information. A 1009 mb low pressure center is near 19N95W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is in a few individual clusters: in the W and NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, in the eastern parts of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, and within 300 nm to the SSW of the 1009 mb low pressure center. This system is expected to move little during the next day or so. Any development should be slow to occur during that time period. The disturbance should begin to move northward by Thursday. It is likely for a tropical depression to form late in the week, when the low pressure moves across the central or NW Gulf of Mexico. Heavy rainfall will continue in parts of Central America and southern Mexico, during the next several days. It is possible also that the heavy rains may begin to impact parts of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Please, consult all weather bulletins from your local meteorological service for more information. The chance of development into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W/30W from 17N southward, moving W near 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 400 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from 03N to 10N. No development of this system is expected at this time. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W/50W from 19N southward, moving W 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 600 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 09N to 16N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/65W, from 17N southward, moving W from 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is directly related to the tropical wave. A tropical wave is along 92W/93W, from 18N in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico southward. The tropical wave is moving westward 10 knots. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 75W in Colombia, beyond Costa Rica, and beyond 12N93W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 400 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 81W and 90W. The 1009 mb low pressure center is near 19N95W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is in a few individual clusters: in the W and NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, in the eastern parts of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, and within 300 nm to the SSW of the 1009 mb low pressure center. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 11N18W. The ITCZ continues from 11N18W, to 10N21W 08N29W 06N31W 01N39W 023N45W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere, from 18N southward from 60W eastward. It is possible that some of the remaining precipitation may be related to the tropical waves also. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean from 25N northward between 70W and 91W. Precipitation: Scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the SE Gulf of Mexico from the Yucatan Channel northward for 240 nm. Other isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the areas that are from 20N northward between 70W and 90W. A broad area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche is expected to move little during the next day or so. Any development should be slow to occur during that time period. The disturbance should begin to move northward by Thursday. It is likely for a tropical depression to form late in the week, when the low pressure center moves across the central or NW Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate-to-fresh NE winds are in the Atlantic Ocean and in the Caribbean Sea from 09N to 21N between 55W and 64W; the sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to 7 feet. Fresh-to-strong NE winds are in the south central Caribbean Sea, and in the Gulf of Venezuela; the sea heights are reaching 6 feet. Fresh-to-strong SE winds are from 21N southward from 82W in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea; the sea heights are reaching 6 feet. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 75W in Colombia, beyond Costa Rica, and beyond 12N93W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. A tropical wave is along 92W/93W, from 18N in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico southward. The tropical wave is moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 400 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 81W and 90W. The 1009 mb low pressure center is near 19N95W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is in a few individual clusters: in the W and NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, in the eastern parts of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, and within 300 nm to the SSW of the 1009 mb low pressure center. A ridge of high pressure north of the basin, and lower pressure in Central America and Colombia, will support pulsing fresh to strong trades in the S central Caribbean Sea, and in the Gulf of Honduras, through the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, except light to gentle south of 11N. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N45W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 14N to 30N between 33W and 57W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N to 29N between 38W and 48W. A surface ridge extends from a 1031 mb high pressure center that is near 34N39W, to the NW Bahamas, and to south Florida. Moderate to locally fresh trades are from 14N to 25N between 19W and 40W. The sea heights are ranging from 7 feet to 9 feet. A ridge of high pressure along 26N will prevail through mid-week, before retreating eastward, through the end of the week. The wind speeds will be fresh to strong to the north of 28N, through mid-week, as two cold fronts pass to the north of the area. $$ mt/jl