000 AXNT20 KNHC 111742 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Jun 11 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1610 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 21W from 15N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N-14N between 16W-23W. The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 14N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N-09N between 40W-48W. The axis of a central Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W from 17N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are noted in Hispaniola with no significant convection associated with this wave at this time. The axis of a western Caribbean tropical wave is near 82W from 16N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N-17N between 80W-84W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau and Senegal near 12N17W to 06N25W. The ITCZ continues from 06N25W to 07N38W to 04N44W, then continues W of a tropical wave near 04N45W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Outside of the convection associated with tropical waves, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted near 03N-08N between 24W-30W and from 00N-06N between 47W-51W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure ridging extends across the Gulf of Mexico. There is a trough over the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche from 22N90W to 18N94W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted near this trough from 19N-24N between 92W-98W. There is another trough from 25N83W to 22N87W with scattered thunderstorms noted near it from 23N-24N between 85W-88W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail in the eastern Gulf with light to gentle SE winds in the western Gulf. Moderate SE winds are noted along the Texas coast. Seas range 2-3 ft. For the forecast, weak high pressure ridging will remain over the central Gulf of Mexico through early next week supporting mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the basin. A trough of low pressure is expected to form early next week over the SW Gulf. Subsequent slow development of this system is possible as it drifts northwestward to northward. CARIBBEAN SEA... Isolated thunderstorms are noted across Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, and Jamaica likely due to some upper level divergence. Some convection over the Yucatan and Belize is reaching adjacent waters. Gentle to moderate trade winds prevail across most of the Caribbean, with fresh winds noted in the south-central portion of the basin in addition to locally fresh winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas range 3-6 ft. For the forecast, a ridge of high pressure along 28N combined with lower pressure over Central America and Colombia is contributing toward fresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through at least Tue night. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, except light to gentle south of 11N. A weak tropical wave over the W Caribbean is helping to induce scattered showers and thunderstorms. A second tropical wave over the central Caribbean has limited shower activity associated with it. A third tropical wave will move into the E Caribbean Mon through Tue night. No tropical cyclone activity is expected over these waters for the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A trough is located from 28N58W to 20N64W with scattered showers and thunderstorms within 90 nm of this feature. Otherwise, high pressure ridging dominates the basin. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are noted across most of the region. Moderate southerly winds are noted near 31N between 70W-77W. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are noted off the coast of Africa E of 40W. Seas range 3-6 ft. For the forecast W of 65W, A ridge of high pressure along 28N will sink southward this weekend. Winds will increase up to a fresh breeze north of 28N tonight through the weekend as a cold front moves by north of the area. Winds and seas should be quiescent across the waters on Mon and Tue. No tropical cyclone activity is expected over these waters for the next several days. $$ AReinhart