000 AXNT20 KNHC 100605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Thu 10 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy rainfall in Central America and in northern Colombia: A broad trough of low pressure is expected to develop in the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or two. It appears that significant development will be unlikely, as the trough drifts west-northwestward or northwestward toward Central America. It is possible that this weather system may produce heavy rainfall, later this week and into the weekend, in northern Colombia, and in parts of Central America from Honduras southward. Please, read all the bulletins, and watch/warning information, from your local meteorological service, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is inland in Africa along 13W/14W, from 18N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 02N to 08N between 07W and 17W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W/31W, from 13N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong from 01N to 10N between 25W and 33W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W/59W, from 13N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is along 08N/09N, about 240 nm to the east of the tropical wave. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow surrounds the tropical wave. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the area that is from Venezuela and Trinidad/Tobago to 18N between 54W and 67W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W/75W, from 16N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within a 60 nm radius of 12N along the tropical wave. A Central America tropical wave is along 88W from 16N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is in parts of Central America and in the eastern Pacific Ocean coastal waters from 12N to 16N between 86W and 90W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W, to 09N21W. The ITCZ continues from 09N21W, to 07N30W, to 06N33W, 04N40W, and 03N46W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 08N to 10N between 20W and 22W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N southward between 25W and 43W. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 02N to 04N between 49W and 53W, including in French Guiana. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N96W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 27N southward from 85W westward. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 60 nm off the coast of SW Florida, near 26N82W. A surface ridge extends from the Atlantic Ocean near 30N79W, across northern Florida, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, to the middle Gulf coast of Texas. An inland diurnal surface trough passes through southern Mexico, the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, to the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: numerous strong covers parts of the Yucatan Peninsula and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico between 89W and 94W, and in southern Mexico from 17N to 19N between 97W and 100W. Fresh easterly winds will pulse each night through Thu night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula due to a diurnal trough. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail as weak high pressure settles over the Gulf of Mexico Thu and Fri. A frontal trough will sink southward over the SE U.S. this weekend, likely inducing moderate SW to W winds over the NE Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W/75W, from 16N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within a 60 nm radius of 12N along the tropical wave. A Central America tropical wave is along 88W from 16N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is in parts of Central America and in the eastern Pacific Ocean coastal waters from 12N to 16N between 86W and 90W. The monsoon trough passes through 11N74W in Colombia, through 11N80W, beyond 10N in Costa Rica, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is in Lake Maracaibo in NW Venezuela, along the border of Colombia and Venezuela from 09N to 10N, and between 77W and 79W at the coast of Panama from 09N to 10N. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 16N southward from 70W westward. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and possible rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and possible precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow. High pressure ridging north of the area will support moderate to locally fresh trade winds tonight. Winds will diminish to gentle to moderate Thu as the high pressure weakens. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over the SW Caribbean through the remainder of this week in association with a broad trough of low pressure. Winds will increase to fresh in the south-central Caribbean Fri night as high pressure ridging becomes re-established along 25N over the west Atlantic. Fresh winds will continue over the central Caribbean through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure center that is near 31N46W, to 30N79W, just to the east of Florida. Scatterometer wind data and sea heights: Strong NE winds are from 03N to 13N between 44W and 55W. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 8 feet in that area. Gentle to moderate winds will continue through Thu night as high pressure ridging prevails over the area. Fresh E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage this evening. A frontal trough is likely to be located north of the area late Fri through the weekend. South of the frontal trough, expect fresh to potentially locally strong SW winds north of 28N, along with scattered showers and thunderstorms. $$ mt/AH