000 AXNT20 KNHC 072302 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Jun 8 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2240 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The monsoon trough, a tropical wave, and an upper level trough will together enhance rainfall between southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica to NW Colombia over the next few days. Please, see products from your local meteorological service for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is currently analyzed along 18W from 14N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is near the southern end of the wave axis from 02N-07N between 12W-24W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W from 12N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. No convection is noted near the wave axis at this time. A tropical wave is over the Windward Islands along 61W from 15N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is enhancing some convective activity over the Windward Islands and eastern Venezuela where scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is note. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W from 15N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave, that extends into western Colombia, combined with the monsoon trough, which passes through Panama, is enhancing convection over the SW Caribbean and parts of northern Colombia, particularly south of 13N between 73W-83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W and continues to 05N24W. The ITCZ then extends from 05N24W to 03N39W. Scattered moderate convection is from the equator to 07N between 30W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging persists over the Gulf of Mexico, with no convection noted at this time. Recent observations depict moderate to fresh SE to S winds throughout the basin. Seas are 4-6 ft in the NW Gulf and the Straits of Florida, with 3-5 ft seas elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure over the Atlantic will cause moderate to fresh SE winds in the Gulf through Tue night. Fresh easterly winds will pulse each night through Wed night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula in association with a diurnal trough. By midweek, E to SE gentle to moderate winds are expected as high pressure over the W Atlantic weakens. Weak high pressure will spread over the Gulf of Mexico late in the week, maintaining tranquil conditions. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section and the Tropical Waves section for more information on possible heavy rain in Colombia and the south central Caribbean. An upper level trough passes through Hispaniola and extends SW to Costa Rica. This feature supports scattered moderate convection over the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh tradewinds prevail over the basin, with locally strong winds found off the coast of Colombia to 15N. Seas are 6-8 ft in the eastern and central Caribbean, and 3-6 ft in the western Caribbean. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse over the central Caribbean, Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras tonight. High pressure ridging north of the area will continue supporting moderate to fresh tradewinds elsewhere through Tue night. Winds will become gentle to moderate by midweek as the high pressure weakens. An enhancement of showers and thunderstorms is expected in the eastern Caribbean through Tue due to the combination of an upper-level trough and tropical waves traversing the region. The convection is expected to migrate to the central and SW Caribbean mid to late week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the section above for information on tropical waves moving across tropical Atlantic. An upper level low is near 26N29W, about 650 nm W of the Canary Islands. Cloudiness and possible light showers are east of the this upper-low, extending to the Canary Islands and the coast of Morocco. The subtropical ridge extends from a 1029 mb high near 33N38W westward to the east coast of northern Florida. Scatterometer data from this morning reveals gentle to moderate trade winds north of 25N with mainly fresh trade winds south of 25N across the basin. Seas are 7-9 ft across the tropical Atlantic south of 27N. Seas are 3-6 ft from 26N-31N. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure ridging will prevail along 31N through Tue, maintaining moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds across most of the forecast waters. By midweek, winds will become gentle to moderate as the high pressure weakens and continue through Fri. Fresh to strong E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage late this afternoon and Tue evening. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail on Wed through Fri for this area. $$ Mahoney/GR