337 AXNT20 KNHC 071812 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Jun 7 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave emerged off the coast of Africa and is currently analyzed along 16W from 13N southward. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection associated with the wave axis is from 03N-09N between 05W-19W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W from 12N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection associated with the wave axis is from 01S-07N between 30W-41W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 60W from 15N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 150 nm either side of the wave axis from 05N-10N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W from 15N southward, moving W at 10 kt. The monsoon trough passes through Panama and is enhancing convection ahead of the wave. Scattered strong convection is south of 12N between 73W-82W, including over NW Colombia and Panama. Expect heavy rain to affect portions of NW Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica through Wed. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16 to 05N23W. The ITCZ continues from 05N23W to 04N38W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 04N41W to 03N51W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the section above, scattered moderate convection is from 05N-08N between 23W-28W. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the central and western Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge extends from east of northern Florida to the central Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms are occurring over the eastern Gulf, mainly east of 86W. ASCAT data from this morning reveals fresh E winds within the Straits of Florida. Fresh SE to S winds are in the west- central Gulf of Mexico. Seas of 4-6 ft are occurring in both locations. Moderate E to SE winds and 3-5 ft seas are elsewhere. High pressure over the Atlc will cause moderate to locally fresh SE winds in the Gulf through Tue night. Fresh easterly winds will pulse each night through Tue night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula in association with a diurnal trough. By midweek, E to SE gentle to moderate winds are expected as high pressure over the W Atlc weakens. Weak high pressure will spread over the Gulf of Mexico late in the week, maintaining tranquil weather conditions with slight winds and seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is along 75W. See above. An upper level trough passes through Hispaniola and extends SW to Costa Rica. Scattered moderate showers are seen on the SE side of the upper- trough extending from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands SW to the Venezuela/Colombia border. Fresh to strong trades are in the central and south-central Caribbean, with fresh trades within the Windward passage and over the NW Caribbean including the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds are in the E Caribbean. Seas are 6-9 ft in the south- central Caribbean, 5-7 ft over the remainder of the central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Fresh to strong winds will pulse over the central Caribbean, Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras through tonight. High pressure ridging north of the area will continue supporting moderate to fresh tradewinds elsewhere through Tue night. Winds will diminish to gentle to moderate by midweek as the high pressure weakens. An enhancement of showers and thunderstorms is expected in the east-central Caribbean through Tue due to the combination of an upper-level trough and tropical waves traversing the region. The enhanced showers and storms will migrate to the central and SW Caribbean mid to late week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N57W, about 550 nm SE of Bermuda. An upper-level trough extends from the upper-low to Hispaniola. A surface trough below the upper-level trough extends from 30N57W to 23N58W. Isolated showers remain within 70 nm west of the surface trough. Comparatively drier air in subsidence seen in water vapor imagery is located in the base of the upper trough, between the upper- low and Hispaniola. A second upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 27N29W, about 650 nm W of the Canary Islands. Cloudiness and possible light showers are east of the this upper-low, extending to the Canary Islands. The subtropical ridge extends from a 1029 mb high near 33N38W westward to the east coast of northern Florida. Scatterometer data from this morning reveals gentle to moderate trade winds north of 25N with fresh trade winds mainly south of 25N across the basin. Seas are 7-9 ft stretching across the tropical Atlantic, south of 25N. Seas are 3-6 ft from 25N-31N. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure ridging will prevail along 31N through Tue, maintaining moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds across most of the forecast waters. By midweek, winds will become gentle to moderate as the high pressure weakens. Fresh to strong E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage late this afternoon and end overnight. $$ Mora