000 AXNT20 KNHC 070604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Jun 07 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W/33W, from 11N southward. The wave is moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 01N to 05N between 13W and 20W, and from 01N to 07N between 28W and 44W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/55W, from 15N southward. The wave is moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 420 nm to the east of the wave, and within 330 nm to the west of the wave, from 15N southward. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W/74W, from 15N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. The monsoon trough passes through 10N74W in Colombia, through 08N81W in Panama, beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: Scattered strong is from 05N to 11N between the tropical wave and 80W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 12N16, to 09N17W, to 07N20W, and 06N25W. The ITCZ continues from 06N25W, to 04N31W, 05N35W, 06N44W, 07N53W, and 07N58W near the coast of Guyana. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 45 nm to the south of the monsoon trough, and within 75 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 18W and 22W. Scattered strong is from 02N to 07N between 11W and 14W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 01N to 05N between 13W and 20W, and from 01N to 07N between 28W and 44W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is on top of Oklahoma, just to the north of Texas. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 90W westward. A surface ridge passes from 29N79W just to the NW Bahamas, across Florida, to the central Gulf of Mexico, to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Earlier widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers, from central Florida northward, have been weakening and dissipating with time. Scatterometer wind data and sea heights: fresh-to-strong SE winds are in the Straits of Florida between 79W and 83W. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet. An upper level low in Texas will continue to enhance scattered showers and thunderstorms in the north central Gulf of Mexico this evening. Otherwise, high pressure in the Atlantic Ocean will cause moderate to locally fresh SE winds in the Gulf through Tue night. Fresh easterly winds will pulse each night through Tue night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula in association with a diurnal trough. E to SE gentle to moderate winds are expected by the middle of the week, as W Atlantic Ocean high pressure weakens. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough passes through Hispaniola, and it continues to Nicaragua/Costa Rica. Precipitation: isolated moderate covers the area that is from Jamaica northward between Hispaniola and the Yucatan Channel, on the SE side of the upper level trough from 12N southward between 77W and Nicaragua. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W/74W, from 15N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. The monsoon trough passes through 10N74W in Colombia, through 08N81W in Panama, beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: Scattered strong is from 05N to 11N between the tropical wave and 80W. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and possible rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and possible precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow. Scatterometer wind data and sea heights: Strong NE-to-E winds are from Hispaniola and Jamaica southward between 66W and 81W...the sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to 9 feet; within 90 nm to the north of the coast of Hispaniola between 70W and the Windward Passage...the sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to 7 feet. Fresh to strong winds will pulse over the south central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Mon night. Fresh to strong E winds will also pulse in the Windward Passage during the late afternoon and evening hours through Mon night. High pressure ridging north of the area will continue supporting moderate to fresh trade winds elsewhere through Tue night. Winds will diminish to gentle to moderate by midweek as the high pressure weakens. An enhancement of showers and thunderstorms is expected in the eastern Caribbean through Tue due to the combination of an upper-level trough and tropical waves traversing the region. The enhanced showers and storms will migrate to the central and SW Caribbean mid to late week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N57W, about 570 nm to the SE of Bermuda. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 135 nm of the center. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, from 240 nm to 760 nm to the WSW of the center. A second upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 27N30W, about 730 nm to the west of the Canary Islands. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is within 210 nm of the center in the eastern semicircle, and within 240 nm to 300 nm of the center in the western semicircle. No significant deep convective precipitation is directly related to the cyclonic center. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 18N northward. A 1030 mb high pressure center is near 34N40W. Scatterometer wind data and sea heights: Strong NE-to-E winds are within 270 nm on either side of the line that runs from 21N17W at the coast of Mauritania, to 18N32W 16N43W, 12N54W and 11N60W. The sea heights in that area are ranging from 7 feet to 9 feet. High pressure ridging will prevail along 31N through Tue. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds across most of the forecast waters through Tue. By midweek, winds will become gentle to moderate as the high pressure weakens. Fresh to strong E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage during the late afternoon and evening hours through Mon night. $$ mt/AH