000 AXNT20 KNHC 062124 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Jun 6 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2110 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is from 01N to 11N with axis near 31W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave is embedded in the Saharan Air Layer, which dry and dusty air is hindering the development of strong convection. Isolated showers are noted in the vicinity of the ITCZ from 02N to 05N between 28W and 32W. A tropical wave is from 04N to 14N with axis near 51W, moving westward at around 15 kt. The wave is at the edge of a Saharan Air Layer outbreak, however, the wave is embedded in a strong wind shear environment, which is limiting the convection to scattered moderate from 05N to 10N between 46W and 57W. A tropical wave is south of 15N with axis near 72W, moving westward at around 10 kt. Shallow moisture and middle to upper level diffluent flow supports scattered moderate convection over the central and eastern Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the west coast of Africa near 12N16W to 08N20W to 06N25W. The ITCZ extends from 06N25W and continues along 03N40W to 05N50W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 08N between 36W and 46W. Otherwise, numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is just off the coast of west Africa from 01N to 11N between 05W and 17W. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level diffluent flow between a middle to upper-level low over Oklahoma and a high over the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico along with abundant moisture inflow from the Caribbean is supporting heavy showers and isolated tstms over southeast Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama adjacent waters. Gusty to gale force winds are likely in the area of the convection. Dense fog continue to be reported in this area as well. Otherwise, gentle to moderate return flow is elsewhere with seas to 3 ft. For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday in the central-eastern Gulf. Otherwise, high pressure over the Atlc will cause moderate to locally fresh SE winds in the Gulf through Tue night. Fresh easterly winds will pulse each night through Tue night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula in association with a diurnal trough. By midweek, E to SE gentle to moderate winds are expected as high pressure over the W Atlc weakens. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the Azores high and a tropical wave moving across the central Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong winds in the south-central basin as indicated by the latest scatterometer data. Diffluent flow aloft to the east of an upper level trough along with shallow moisture supports scattered showers and isolated tstms over the central and eastern basin. Scattered showers and tstms are also ocurring across Hispaniola. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh trade winds are elsewhere with seas to 6 ft, except in the central Caribbean where the seas will be in the 6-7 ft range. Fresh to strong winds will pulse over the south central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Mon night. Fresh to strong E winds will also pulse in the Windward Passage during the late afternoon and evening hours through Mon night. High pressure ridging north of the area will continue supporting moderate to fresh tradewinds elsewhere through Tue. Winds will diminish to gentle to moderate by midweek. An enhancement of showers and thunderstorms is expected in the eastern Caribbean through Tue due to the combination of an upper-level trough and tropical waves traversing the region. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface ridging associated with the Bermuda-Azores high dominates the tropical Atlantic. Moderate to fresh NE winds in the eastern Atlantic veer to mainly E in the central Atlantic and then to SE in the western Atlantic. Seas are 5-8 ft N of 20N east of 45W. Seas are 3-6 ft west of 45W. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure will prevail north of the area through Tue. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds across most of the forecast waters through Tue. By midweek, winds will become gentle to moderate as the high pressure weakens. Fresh to strong E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage during the late afternoon and evening hours through Mon night. For the forecast east of 65W, the weakening Bermuda-Azores high will allow a relaxation of the trades by late Wed or Thu. Likewise, seas will diminish slightly to below 8 ft across the tropical N Atlantic by Thu. $$ Ramos/Torres