000 AXNT20 KNHC 050508 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Jun 5 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 20W, from 12N southward, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 18W to 25W. The wave is primarily monitored via 700 mb GFS-based trough diagnostics. The axis of a tropical wave is near 42W, from 13N southward, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. The system has no significant convection this evening. A surface trough was noted in the scatterometer pass. The axis of a tropical wave is near 68W, from 12N southward, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. The system has no significant convection this evening. The wave is primarily monitored via 700 mb GFS-based trough diagnostics. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from coastal Senegal near 14N17W to 04N23W. The ITCZ extends from 04N23W to coastal Brazil near 02N51W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N and 08N between 18W and 34W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection exists north of 02N and east of 16W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak high pressure ridge extends along the coast of SE United States, contributing toward generally light to gentle winds across the Gulf. The exception is just north and west of Yucatan, where NE to E winds are moderate to fresh in association with the diurnal trough. Seas are 1-2 ft in the E Gulf and 2-4 ft in the central and W Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 28N west of 88W and south of 20N west of 90W in association with a vigorous upper-level trough. High pressure ridging will persist across the forecast waters through early next week. Fresh easterly winds will pulse each night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula in association with a diurnal trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are expected elsewhere through Wed. An upper-level low over Texas will continue to enhance convection over the NW Gulf waters tonight and spread to the north-central Gulf through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... The northern portions of a tropical wave is impacting the basin. Please refer to the section above for details. A N-S pressure gradient between ridging near 30N and a 1008 mb Colombian Low is contributing toward a NE to E strong breeze over S central Caribbean as well as in the over the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere the E trades are moderate to fresh. Seas are 6-7 ft over the central Caribbean, 3-5 ft over the W Caribbean, and 4-6 ft over the E Caribbean. Scattered showers are occurring south of 13N and east of 65W in association with an upper-level trough interacting with a tropical wave. Fresh to strong winds will pulse nightly over the south central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Sun night. Elsewhere, high pressure ridge north of the area will continue supporting moderate to fresh tradewinds across much of the Caribbean through early next week. By midweek, gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. A 1032 mb Bermuda-Azores High is near 36N27W with ridging extending west-southwestward to the Georgia-Florida border near 30N81W. The N-S pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure with the ITCZ is causing strong E trades just north of Hispaniola, strong NE winds just west of NW Africa north of 13N east of 27W, and fresh to moderate NE to E trades elsewhere. Seas are 8-9 ft just west of NW Africa and 4-7 ft elsewhere. A surface trough is contributing toward scattered showers from 25N-31N between 30W-36W. Aside from convection associated with the ITCZ/monsoon trough, no significant deep convection is present. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure will prevail north of the area through the weekend and into early next week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds across most of the forecast waters through Tue. By midweek, winds will become gentle to moderate. Fresh to strong E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola during the late afternoon and evening hours through Mon. For the forecast east of 65W, a weakening Bermuda-Azores High will allow a relaxation of the trades from Sun through Wed. Likewise, seas will diminish slightly to below 8 ft across the tropical N Atlantic by Mon. $$ Landsea