000 AXNT20 KNHC 042334 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Jun 4 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 17W, from 09N southward, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted between 15W to 20W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 39W, from 13N southward, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N-11N between 37W-43W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 66W, from 12N southward, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the ABC Islands westward to the Gulf of Venezuela. The axis of tropical wave is near 81W, from 13N southward, moving westward at around 5-10 kt. Scatted moderate convection is noted in the Caribbean along the coast of Panama. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W and continues over the E Atlantic to 04N24W. Segments of the ITCZ are analyzed from 04N24W to 04N37W, and from 04N43W to the coast of Venezuela near 07N53W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted near the monsoon trough from 01N to 06N and E of 11W. Scattered moderate convection is noted west of the tropical wave from 00N to 09N between 20W to 23W. The latest scatterometer data shows strong winds within this area of convection. Scattered moderate convection is present in the vicinity of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... In the W Gulf, a surface trough is located from the coast of Veracruz, Mexico near 19N95W to 25N95W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring with this trough. Another surface trough extends along the Texas and Louisiana coastlines. Showers are noted with this feature along the Louisiana coast westward to Brownsville, Texas. Across the Gulf, surface ridging supports gentle to moderate SE winds. 2-4 ft seas are noted in the central Gulf and Bay of Campeche, with 1-3 ft seas elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure ridging will persist across the forecast waters through early next week. Fresh easterly winds will pulse each night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula in association with a diurnal trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are expected elsewhere through Wed. An upper-level low over Texas will continue to enhance convection over the NW Gulf waters tonight and spread to the north-central Gulf by Sat and Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... The northern portions of two tropical waves are impacting the basin. Please refer to the section above for details. An upper level trough extends over the Windward Passage and western Caribbean. Recent scatterometer data depicts fresh to locally strong trade winds from the coast of Colombia to 15N, where seas are 6-8 ft. Mainly moderate trade winds with seas of 4-7 ft are noted in the remainder of basin, except in the NW Caribbean where seas are 2-4 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse nightly over the south central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Sun night. Elsewhere, high pressure ridge north of the area will continue supporting moderate to fresh tradewinds across much of the Caribbean through early next week. By midweek, trade winds will be gentle to moderate. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A tropical wave is moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. A broad ridge dominates the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic, anchored by several high pressures north of the discussion area. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the eastern coast of Florida associated with afternoon sea breezy activity that has moved offshore this evening. Scattered showers are seen from the northern Bahamas to 31N. Moderate to locally strong NE winds are noted near the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds veer from NE in the eastern Atlantic, to E in the central Atlantic, to SE near the Bahamas. West of 70W, seas are 4-6 ft. East of 70W, seas are 4-7 ft. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail north of the area through the weekend and into early next week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds across most of the forecast waters through Tue. By midweek, winds will become gentle to moderate. Fresh to strong E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola during the late afternoon and evening hours through Mon. $$ Torres