000 AXNT20 KNHC 040958 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Jun 4 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 37W, from 12N southward, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N-09N between 31W-36W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 64W, from 11N southward, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 10N between 60W-65W. The axis of tropical wave is near 80W, from 13N southward, moving westward at around 5-10 kt. Scatted moderate convection is noted from 06N-11N between 79W-83W, with additional showers and thunderstorms inland over much of Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 07N13W and continues over the E Atlantic to 04N24W. The ITCZ continues from 04N24W to 05N36W, and from 04N40W to the coast of Brazil near 09N61W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N-09N between 10W-20W. Scattered showers are noted elsewhere in the vicinity of both boundaries. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging continues prevails across the basin. Gentle to moderate easterly winds in the S Gulf veer to southerly in the N Gulf. 2-4 ft seas are noted in the W Gulf, with 1-3 ft seas elsewhere. A diffluent flow aloft is enhancing convection across the northern half of the basin. For the forecast, high pressure ridging will persist across the forecast waters through early next week. Fresh easterly winds will pulse each night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula in association with a diurnal trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are expected elsewhere through early next week. An upper-level low over Texas will enhance convection over the NW gulf waters today and spread across the basin through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... The northern portions of two tropical waves are extending across the basin. Please refer to the section above for details. An upper level trough extends over the Windward Passage and western Caribbean. The trough is enhancing convection across Cuba and adjacent waters. Recent observations depict moderate to fresh trade winds in the central Caribbean, where seas are reported to be 5-8 ft. Mainly moderate trade winds are noted in the remainder of the basin, except gentle to moderate north of 18N. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range, except 3-5 ft in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong over the south central Caribbean the next several nights. Elsewhere, high pressure ridge north of the area will continue supporting moderate to fresh tradewinds across much of the Caribbean through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A tropical wave is moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. A broad ridge dominates the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic, anchored by 1029 mb high pressure centered SW of the Azores near 34N54W, another 1029 mb high near 34N36W, and a 1030 mb high centered near 37N24W. Gentle to moderate winds, locally strong west of 55W, veer from NNE in the eastern Atlantic, to E in the central Atlantic, to SE near the Bahamas. West of 65W, seas are 4-6 ft, and 4-7 ft east of 65W. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure will prevail north of the area through the remainder of the week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds across most of the forecast waters through Mon. Fresh to strong E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola during the late afternoon and evening hours for the next several days. $$ ERA