000 AXNT20 KNHC 032123 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Jun 4 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2050 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 34W/35W, from 12N southward, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N-08N between 31W-36W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 60W/61W, from 11N southward, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the equator-11N between 52W-62W. The axis of tropical wave is near 77W/78W, from 14N southward, moving westward at around 5 kt. Scatted moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N-11N between 76W-83W, with additional showers and thunderstorms inland over much of Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea and Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W and continues over the E Atlantic to 06N17W to 05N25W. Segments of the ITCZ continue from 05N25W to 05N32W, and from 05N36W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N-07N between 07W-20W. GULF OF MEXICO... Ridging continues to be observed across the Gulf of Mexico. In the S Gulf, a weak trough is analyzed along 93W/94W from 18N- 22N. Another weak trough is analyzed from 25N95W to 22N98W in the west central Gulf. Gentle to moderate easterly winds in the S Gulf veer to southerly in the N Gulf. 2-4 ft seas are noted in the W Gulf, with 1-3 ft seas elsewhere. A stationary front is analyzed inland from southern Louisiana to across coastal sections of Texas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with the front are mainly concentrated inland. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also noted across the Florida Peninsula with a ribbon of deep tropical moisture along the western periphery of the high pressure centered over the Atlantic. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also occurring north of 21N and west of 90W. For the forecast, high pressure ridging will persist across the forecast waters through early next week. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse each night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula in association with a diurnal trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are expected elsewhere through early next week. An upper- level low over Texas will enhance showers and thunderstorms Fri through the weekend over the NW Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level low over southeast Cuba is supporting scattered moderate convection across portions of Cuba, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are also noted over Hispaniola. Recent observations show moderate to fresh trade winds in the central Caribbean, where seas are reported to be 5-8 ft. Mainly moderate trade winds are noted in the remainder of the basin, except gentle to moderate north of 18N. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range, except 3-5 ft in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong over the south central Caribbean the next several nights. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge north of the area will support moderate to fresh tradewinds across much of the Caribbean through Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad ridge dominates the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic, anchored by 1030 mb high pressure centered SW of the Azores near 36N30W, and a 1029 mb high pressure ENE of Bermuda near 35N55W. Gentle to moderate winds, locally strong west of 55W, veer from NNE in the eastern Atlantic, to E in the central Atlantic, to SE near the Bahamas. West of 65W, seas are 4-6 ft, and 4-7 ft east of 65W. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure will prevail north of the area through the remainder of the week. This will support moderate to locally fresh E to SE trade winds across most of the forecast waters through Mon. Fresh to locally strong E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola during the late afternoon and evening hours for the next several evenings. $$ Lewitsky