734 AXNT20 KNHC 030848 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Jun 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 31W/32W, from 12N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 25W and 30W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 57W/58W, from 12N southward, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted with this tropical wave from 07N to 09N between 56W and 59W. The axis of tropical wave is near 76W, from 13N southward, moving westward at around 5 kt. No significant convection is noted near this tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 13N16W to 09N20W. Segments of the ITCZ continue from 09N20W to 05N30W, and from 05N35W to 03N51W. Other than the convection described in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate convection is active from 01N to 04N between 15W and 25W, and from 01N to 03N between 35W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface ridge extends across the northern Gulf, from 1017 mb high pressure off the western Florida Panhandle near 30N86W, to the central coast of Texas. Farther south, weak troughing is noted over the east-central Gulf off Florida, and over the southwest Gulf along 95W south of 23N. A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds over the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate easterly breezes persist elsewhere, with 1 to 3 ft seas in most areas. Smoke from forecast fires and agricultural burning may be limiting visibility slightly off the southern coast of Veracruz in the far southwest Gulf. Scattered showers are evident from northeast Mexico along the coast of Tamaulipas, to the north- central Gulf off the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi. Scattered showers are also noted over the southeast Gulf, from Straits of Florida across the Lower Florida Keys to off Tampa, Florida. For the forecast, high pressure ridging will persist across the forecast waters through early next week. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse each night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula in association with a diurnal trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are expected elsewhere through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level low over southeast Cuba is supporting scattered moderate convection over the Windward Passage, between northern Haiti and eastern Cuba. A few showers are also noted between central Panama and southeast Nicaragua, mainly due to trade wind convergence. Ship observations and an earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong trade winds off the coast of central Colombia, where seas are estimated to be 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate trade winds are noted elsewhere, with 4 to 6 ft seas. For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong over the south central Caribbean the next several nights. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge north of the area will support moderate to fresh tradewinds across much of the Caribbean through Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad ridge dominates the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic, anchored by 1029 mb high pressure centered west the Azores near 38N31W. This pattern is supporting generally moderate E to NE winds west of 35W, except for moderate to fresh winds off northeast Florida, and pulsing off the north coast of Hispaniola, south of 15N. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft west of 35W in open waters. Farther east, a weakening stationary front is analyzed from Spain to the Canary Islands. Fresh NE winds winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are evident north of this boundary. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate N to NE winds are noted, except for fresh N winds off Mauritania, with 5 to 6 ft seas. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure will prevail north of the area through the remainder of the week. This will support moderate to locally fresh E to SE trade winds across most of the forecast waters through Mon. Fresh to locally strong E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola during the evening hours. Elsewhere west of 35W, little change is expected. $$ Christensen