000 AXNT20 KNHC 030404 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Jun 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 30W/31W, from 12N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 10N between 24W and 27W. There was little evidence of the tropical wave axis previously noted near 41W/42W, and it was not included on the 00 UTC analysis. The axis of a tropical wave is near 56W, from 12N southward, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this tropical wave. The tropical wave previously located near 70W has been relocated at 00 UTC to near 75W, from 13N southward, moving westward at around 5 kt. Thunderstorms remain active over the border of Venezuela and Colombia, and over Lake Maracaibo. This is probably related to local effects and divergence aloft on the southeast side of an upper trough just west of the area. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 12N16W to 10N20W. Segments of the ITCZ continue from 10N20W to 07N25W, and from 03N35W to 03N51W. Other than the convection described in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate convection is active from 02N to 04N between 15W and 25W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface ridge extends across the northern Gulf, from 1017 mb high pressure over the northeast Gulf near 29N85W, to the central coast of Texas. Farther south, weak troughing is noted from the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula to southwest Florida. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are noted over the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, west of the trough. Gentle to moderate easterly breezes persist elsewhere, with 1 to 3 ft seas in most areas. Smoke from forecast fires and agricultural burning may be limiting visibility slightly off the southern coast of Veracruz in the far southwest Gulf. A few showers are noted on coastal radars off the west coast of Florida, but otherwise not significant showers or thunderstorms are noted. For the forecast, high pressure ridging will persist across the forecast waters this week. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse each night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula in association with a diurnal trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are expected elsewhere through the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level low over southeast Cuba is supporting scattered moderate convection over the Windward Passage, between southeast Haiti and eastern Cuba. A few showers are also noted between central Panama and southeast Nicaragua, mainly due to trade wind convergence. Ship observations and a recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong trade winds off the coast of central Colombia, where seas are estimated to be 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate trade winds are noted elsewhere, with 4 to 6 ft seas. For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong over the south central Caribbean the next few nights. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge north of the area will support moderate to fresh tradewinds across much of the Caribbean through Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad ridge dominates the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic, anchored by 1031 mb high pressure centered west the Azores. This pattern is supporting generally moderate E to NE winds west of 35W, except for moderate to fresh winds pulsing off the north coast of Hispaniola, and south of 15N. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft west of 35W. Farther east, a weakening cold front is analyzed from Spain to the Canary Islands, then westward to 25N30W. Fresh NE winds winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are evident north of this boundary. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate N to NE winds are noted, except for fresh N winds off Mauritania, with 5 to 6 ft seas. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure will prevail north of the area through the remainder of the week. This will support moderate to locally fresh E to SE trade winds across most of the forecast waters through Mon. Fresh to locally strong E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola during the evening hours through Sat. Elsewhere west of 35W, little change is expected. $$ Christensen