000 AXNT20 KNHC 020520 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Jun 02 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 22W/23W, from 15N southward. The wave is moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. No significant deep convective precipitation is directly related to the tropical wave. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 06N southward from the tropical wave eastward. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W/37W, from 11N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 04N to 12N within 300 nm to the west of the tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W/68W, from 12N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation is inland in Venezuela from 05N to 08N between 64W and 66W, and from 09N to 11N between 68W and 70W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 11N15W, to 07N20W, and 4N34W. No ITCZ is apparent at this time. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 02N to 07N between 23W and 33W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the coastal waters of Florida, the Bahamas, and Cuba, into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 23N79W, just off the coast of Cuba. A surface trough is along 30N79W, to the southernmost parts of Florida, to NW Cuba. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the areas that are from the Greater Antilles to 30N between 70W and 83W, in Florida, in the Caribbean Sea, and in the Atlantic Ocean. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, within 360 nm of the cyclonic center, in the NW semicircle, in the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers, that have been in the Gulf of Mexico from 87W westward, have been associated with an outflow boundary, that is about 300 nm off the coasts of Texas and Mexico. A surface ridge extends from NE Florida, to the west central Gulf of Mexico, to Mexico near 21N96W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure ridging will prevail in the forecast waters this week. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse each night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula, in association with a diurnal trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are expected elsewhere through the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the coastal waters of Florida, the Bahamas, and Cuba, into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 23N79W, just off the coast of Cuba. A surface trough is along 30N79W, to the southernmost parts of Florida, to NW Cuba. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the areas that are from the Greater Antilles to 30N between 70W and 83W, in Florida, in the Caribbean Sea, and in the Atlantic Ocean. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, within 360 nm of the cyclonic center, in the NW semicircle, in the Gulf of Mexico. The monsoon trough passes through 11N74W in Colombia, to 09N80W in Panama, beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the Caribbean Sea from 13N southward between 70W and 80W. Widely scattered moderate to strong is within 300 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 73W and 78W in Colombia, and in NW Venezuela between Lake Maracaibo and the border of Venezuela and Colombia. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and possible rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and possible precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow. Fresh to strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea will prevail through this evening, before diminishing. High pressure will prevail in the central Atlantic Ocean through the week. This will support moderate to fresh trade winds in much of the basin through Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the coastal waters of Florida, the Bahamas, and Cuba, into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 23N79W, just off the coast of Cuba. A surface trough is along 30N79W, to the southernmost parts of Florida, to NW Cuba. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the areas that are from the Greater Antilles to 30N between 70W and 83W, in Florida, in the Caribbean Sea, and in the Atlantic Ocean. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, within 360 nm of the cyclonic center, in the NW semicircle, in the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front has moved into the area, passing through 31N24W, to 30N30W, and to 28N38W 29N44W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, are from 27N northward from 45W eastward. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 15N northward from 75W eastward. A 1029 mb high pressure center is near 36N54W. High pressure will prevail to the north of the area through the remainder of the week. This will support moderate to locally fresh E to SE trade winds in much of the forecast waters through Sunday. $$ mt/al