000
AXNT20 KNHC 011740
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Jun 1 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 20W, from 15N southward, 
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 00N to 06N between 06W and 22W. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 65W, from 13N southward, 
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Convection is inland over 
Venezuela and NW Brazil.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is inland over Africa. The ITCZ begins near 
05N23W to 07N35W to 05N47W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 03N to 08N between 32W and 40W. Similar convection is 
noted from 01N to 09N between 46W and 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, an outflow boundary ahead of a cold front 
located over South Texas has entered the NW Gulf of Mexico. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are north of 25N and west of 
95W. Otherwise, high pressure prevails allowing for moderate E 
winds across most of the basin. ASCAT data notes fresh winds 
west of the Yucatan peninsula. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range west 
of the Yucatan peninsula, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

High pressure will prevail across the forecast waters this week. 
Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse each night off the NW 
Yucatan Peninsula in association with a diurnal trough. Gentle 
to moderate E to SE winds are expected elsewhere through the end 
of the week. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough passes through northern Colombia into the 
east Pacific. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection 
associated with the monsoon trough is in the SW Caribbean, south 
of 11N and east of 78W. The pressure gradient between higher 
pressure north of the area and climatological low pressure over 
Colombia is supporting fresh to strong trades over the south 
central Caribbean with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate 
winds are over the NW Caribbean with 2 to 4 ft seas. Moderate to 
fresh winds prevail elsewhere with 3 to 5 ft seas.  

Fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean will 
prevail today before diminishing. High pressure will prevail 
across the western Atlc through the week. This will support 
moderate to fresh tradewinds across much of the basin through 
Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 30N78W to the NW Bahamas to 
24N80W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
within 1800 nm of the trough. Light to gentle winds and seas of 
3-4 ft are found west of the trough. High pressure dominates the 
remainder of the discussion waters, anchored by a 1032 mb high 
pressure near 36N53W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the 
forecast waters west of 40W, while gentle to moderate winds are 
east of 40W. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range west of 60W. East of 
60W, seas are in the 5-8 ft range.

For the forecast W of 65W, the surface trough will dissipate 
today. High pressure will gradually build westward into the region
through Wed and then prevail through the remainder of the week. 
This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds across much of 
the forecast waters Wed through Sat. 

$$
Mora